ECONOMY

Sobir KURBANOV

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Sobir Kurbanov, Economist, Panorama Research and Production Association (Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

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The economic development trend of the past few years continued in 2006: nominal GDP increased to 9,272.2 thousand somoni (SM), or $2,811 million, and real GDP growth was 7%.

This is slightly above the 2005 level of 6.7%, but below the level of 2002-2004, which suggests that the resources of “recovery” growth based on traditional sources (cotton, aluminum, etc.) are virtually exhausted, while the resources of the private sector remain untapped. Moreover, real sector growth even slowed down: in industry, the growth rate dropped by almost half to 4.9% (from 8.5% in 2005); in agriculture, on the other hand, it rose to 5.4% (from 3.1% in 2005). In the last few months of the year, industrial production in many areas fell in volume terms due to unprecedented power cuts and rising prices for gas and other energy resources, the main component of production costs. Consequently, national industry faces the pressing problem of a decline in competitiveness against the background of…………….

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