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TAJIKISTAN BETWEEN RUSSIA, THE WEST, AND THE EAST
Parviz MULLOJANOV
Parviz Mullojanov, Political scientist, Director of the Public Committee for Promoting Democratic Processes (Dushanbe, Tajikistan)
Throughout mankind’s long political history, small states have been inevitably forced to join, in one way or another, the spheres of influence of one or several powers, otherwise known as “centers of power.” Some obvious disadvantages of this, the resulting provincial status, limited (or no) access to the outside world, decline in the use of the mother tongue and ethnic culture because of forced or natural assimilation, economic dependence, and so on, went hand in hand with the obvious advantage of sustainable and peaceful development. On the contrary, changing one “traditional” patron for another was usually accompanied by social and political upheavals which sometimes deprived the small country of any future. Those which attempted to strike a balance among the interests of several power centers were rarely successful—they merely postponed for a while the need to join the sphere of influence of the geopolitical victor.
I think that Tajikistan has reached this point. In the last 150 years the Tajik nation (or rather, the part that resides in the republic) lived within the Russian center of power, first, as part of the Bukhara Emirate, then as one of the fifteen Soviet socialist republics. Starting in 1991, however, Russian influence in Central Asia has been obviously declining; therefore the republican leaders have to make important decisions, as well as a geopolitical choice. Should the country continue to regard Moscow as the main strategic partner? A positive answer invites another question: how should relations with Russia develop in the changing conditions? A negative answer creates the problem of choosing another patron from among the centers of power acting in the region. Can Tajikistan, a small country which lived through a devastating civil war, has no influential diaspora abroad, and no considerable oil and gas reserves or industrial resources, be really independent? The choice will seal our future for many years or even decades to come in all spheres (political, economic, cultural, linguistic, social, etc.).
Russia’s presence in Central Asia is shrinking because of………………
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