CAN THE KAZAKHSTAN ECONOMY BECOME RAW-MATERIAL INDEPENDENT
Arsen Tleppaev, Researcher at the Department of Macro-Microeconomics, al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Kazakhstan)
Kazakhstan’s economic development has been rather impressive in recent years, but the country has very justified concerns about how long it can keep these dynamics up. Many experts are inclined to explain the stable growth rates not by the government’s intelligent economic policy, but by the economy’s reverse motion after the slump reached its peak, and also by national currency devaluation and increasing oil prices.
The high price of raw material resources in recent years is indeed ensuring high growth rates of Kazakhstan’s GDP. But the amount of revenue coming into the country from these sources is extremely unstable and unpredictable and can hardly be viewed as a firm foundation for long-term economic growth. What is more, as many research studies indicate, this revenue may even hinder successful development to a certain extent. The Kazakhstan economy is not unique in this respect. Nearly all resource-rich countries are encountering the same problem—how to diversify industrial production and export so that they depend less on resource factors.
The question economists are trying to answer is whether abundant resources are a boon or bane for the economy. At first glace, it seems strange that a country’s natural supplies of valuable resources might be a reason for economic failures. But, as often happens in economic systems, various indirect negative effects can outweigh the direct positive effect of……………..