TAJIKISTAN TODAY: ECONOMICS AND POLITICS AT HOME AND ABROAD

Askar ABDRAKHMANOV


Askar Abdrakhmanov, Expert, Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Foundation of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Almaty, Kazakhstan)


Ten years ago, on 27 June, 1997, Emomali Rakhmons government and the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) signed the General Agreement on Peace in Tajikistan in Moscow. S.A. Noori, the UTO head, died in the latter half of 2006; several months later President Rakhmon began another 7-year presidential term by forming a new Cabinet in which, for the first time since the Moscow Agreement, there were no members of the former opposition. The post-conflict period in Tajikistan had come to an end: in the summer of 2007 the U.N. Security Council closed the U.N. Tajikistan Office of Peace-building.

The decade that has passed since the end of the civil war was used to achieve relative social, economic, and political stability. Despite the fairly low GDP level (60 percent of Soviet times) and the poverty level, which remains the highest among the Soviet successor states, the nation is positive about the prospects. This is an important factor of political stabilityprobably even more important than the much-discussed fear of another bout of domestic unrest.

The shadow economy (migration of about a million Tajiks to Russia and the growing drug-created profits of certain groups engaged in drug trafficking from Afghanistan) plays an important role in the positive economic dynamics.

The official economy is also growing: the GDP is increasing by 6.7 to 10.6 percent every year. A successful macroeconomic policy and balanced foreign policy allowed Dushanbe to attract investments in large-scale hydropower projects and the transportation infrastructure. There is..


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