LEVEL OF SOCIAL CONFLICT POTENTIAL IN KAZAKHSTAN: POSSIBLE RISKS AND THREATS

Gulnar NASIMOVA


Gulnar Nasimova, D.Sc. (Political Science), Professor, Head of the Political Science Chair at al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Kazakhstan)


Introduction

As world experience shows, countries that embark on the path of socioeconomic and political modernization are likely to encounter a rise in social tension and the emergence of numerous conflicts.

The Republic of Kazakhstan is well versed in the prevention of these phenomena. Nevertheless, modernization in Kazakhstan is bringing to the fore other problems relating to efficient conflict management and finding peaceful constitutionally legal ways to carry out comprehensive reform of society.

It is a well-known fact that the aggravation of contradictions and the political conflicts in the post-Soviet states, which in some cases have led to armed conflicts, are undoubtedly related both to historical prerequisites and to crisis phenomena in the development of the sociocultural, socioeconomic, and political spheres of public relations. However, we think that one of the main reasons for the emergence of the domestic political conflicts in the CIS countries has been the poor development of ways to prevent and regulate them. So strategies and efficient mechanisms must be sought for taking preventive measures against possible social upheavals and the outbreak of conflict action and for reaching a consensus among the political entities. It goes without saying that an entirely conflict-free society with ideal social relations is a utopia. Institutionalized conflicts are a different matter however, since they potentially perform a constructive function and help society to progress.

The author of this article concentrates on potentially destructive conflicts, the settlement of which could be accompanied by social upheavals.

Main Factors and Reasons for the Emergence of Conflicts in Kazakhstan

World science offers a variety of methods and models for identifying the reasons for conflicts and measuring the level of social tension that can be used for analyzing this problem within the framework of the following blocks.

The first block consists of indicators that characterize the subjective sphere: social deprivation and frustration as an expression of the dissatisfaction an individual or social group feels about the current standard of living, as well as worries about the gap between expectations and real possibilities. These indicators are mainly recorded by assessing the degree to which peoples vitally important needs are being met and their expectations of finding a solution to the problems that affect their interests.

In this block, indicators of the state of peoples social existence and their living conditions must be taken into account.

We studied the following parameters in order to discover the reasons for the conflicts in Kazakhstan and identify their characteristics in the..


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