MACROECONOMIC MODEL FOR OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES

Alexander TVALCHRELIDZE, Avtandil SILAGADZE


Alexander Tvalchrelidze, D.Sc. (Geology and Mineralogy), Vice President of the Georgian Academy of Natural Sciences (Tbilisi, Georgia)

Avtandil Silagadze, D.Sc. (Econ.), Full Member of the Georgian National Academy of Sciences (Tbilisi, Georgia)


ABSTRACT

This article explores the relationship between GDP and net oil exports in major oil-exporting countries. The extremely strong positive correlation between these parameters makes it possible to develop GDP models for these countries based on exports of crude oil; it has been demonstrated that they are described by a quadratic regression with acceptable reliability. The study results show that the oil industry is the main driver of economic development in the modern world. Even where direct oil exports make up an insignificant part of GDP in oil-exporting countries, their impact on economic development is decisive.

Keywords: Macroeconomic model, oil-exporting countries, OPEC, oil markets, oil exports.

Introduction

The role of crude oil in the world economy cannot be overestimated.

First, although in some countries (as in South Africa) motor fuel is partly derived from coal, crude oil continues to be the main source of gasoline, kerosene and other fuels). According to available data, crude oil leads with 39% of world primary energy consumption, and


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