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ECONOMY AND SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 9/11: A SKEPTICAL LOOKMartin C. SPECHLER
Martin C. Spechler, Professor of Economics, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI), and faculty affiliate, Inner Asian and Uralic National Resource Center, Indiana University (U.S.A.)
The dramatic terrorist attacks of 11 September, 2001, which were directed from Afghanistan, have drawn the attention of the U.S.A. and the West generally to Central Asia and created expectations by some, and fears by others, that the security and economic situations there would be transformed. The changes have proved to be short-lived and small—less a transformation than an interlude in the war against terrorists worldwide. Though several of the political actors involved in Central Asia have had an interest in creating the appearance of basic transformation, little about the economies (or societies) seems to have altered since I was last there in the summer of 2001. Aside from oil extraction and transportation, which affects west Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan mostly, these countries remain poor, isolated, and growing slowly. Their politics remain autocratic and corrupt, and their societies conservative and moving only very slowly toward global integration. Now that the war against the Taliban is winding down, the United States and its NATO allies have little further interest to deepen their involvement in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, or even Kazakhstan. So the security situation also returns to its pre-9/11 position. And since the regimes in these countries are of uncertain popularity and stability, it may be better for outside powers not to become too associated with them in the minds of elites and masses in these countries. Hence the direct aid and security assistance has been modest and indirect, relying on NGO’s and multilateral donors like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. The hopes of some Central Asians that the U.S.A. would now intervene powerfully in their favor—and the fears and suspicions of Russian, Chinese, and Iranian commentators along the same lines—should be treated with skepticism. This essay will try to anchor this skepticism in hard facts.
With regard to Uzbekistan, the most powerful of Central Asian states and the one I know best, there has been an exchange. Basing rights were granted, after President Vladimir Putin lifted Russia’s initial objections, for…………….
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