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RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES IN CENTRAL ASIA: PROBLEMS, PROSPECTS, AND INTERESTSDmitry TROFIMOV
Dmitry Trofimov, Associate fellow, Institute for Applied International Research (Moscow, Russian Federation)
The latest changes in the Central Asian geopolitical configuration triggered in 2001 by the counter-terrorist operation in Afghanistan made the specifics and trends of regional strategies of Russia and the United States, two key players, more topical than ever. Even if their historical experience in Central Asia is incomparable, their real influence is gradually moving toward a balance. This makes their continued mutually profitable dialog on the regional subjects desirable, to say the least. It should be said that today the mutual trust level to say nothing of cooperation remains low despite the fact that anti-American and, correspondingly, anti-Russian sentiments are fading from official public politics and the two presidents’ approaches show positive developments. The foreign policy and military establishments in both capitals, on the other hand, are still thinking in confrontational terms and follow the traditional zero sum game.
Regional specifics with a very complicated algorithm of their own require an integrated and non-spontaneous approach from Russia and the United States: the national interests of the majority of the regional forces are at conflict with each other. There is a gamut of factors that are hard to predict and that can destabilize the situation in Central Asia to a great extent. The following circumstances should be taken into account.
1. The region is continuously sliding toward the Third World zone that makes the economic and political contradictions among the local countries deeper still.
2. Surplus able-bodied population is steadily growing (while the natural population growth remains on the 3 percent level) and its density is increasing in the conflict-prone and rapidly impoverishing territories. In the mid-term perspective tension and unpredictability will survive (this is especially true of the Ferghana Valley).
3. An unequal distribution of water resources amid degenerating ecological and hydrological conditions. This calls for a complete account of seasonal fluctuations of relations among the countries that are the major water suppliers and water users.
4. A threat of uncontrolled Islamization of enclaves and their possible autonomization that is always present in……………………..
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