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RUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIA: POST-11 SEPTEMBER, 2001Lena JONSON
Lena Jonson, Doctor, senior researcher, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (Stockholm, Sweden)
I. IntroductionThe terrorist attacks on the U.S.A. of 11 September, 2001 and the fact that President Putin gave his consent to U.S. aircraft using airfields and airspace in Central Asian states during military operations in Afghanistan created a completely new situation in Central Asia. In 1999 Vladimir Putin had made the antiterrorist struggle first priority on Russia’s agenda in Central Asia. This was a determined effort to take the initiative, rally the Central Asian states behind Russia and counter foreign engagement. By his decision in September 2001 to allow the military presence of the U.S.A. and its allies, Russia seemed to step back to a secondary role as the U.S.A. directly engaged in the antiterrorist struggle in Central Asia.
The U.S. engagement in the region drastically accelerated trends that had been developing since the late 1990s: a decline of Russian influence; a larger foreign engagement, first and foremost by the U.S.A.; and a more active search for foreign partners by the Central Asian states. The focus of this article is Russia’s efforts to cope with this situation. The aim is threefold: to present trends in Russian policy in Central Asia; to analyze the development of the major security dynamics of the region and their influence on Russia’s policy and position; and to discuss the prospects for the future of Russia in the region. The case of Tajikistan is of special interest since it developed into Russia’s closest Central Asian ally since the late 1990s.
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union Central Asia has been of concern to Russia for both security and strategic reasons. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, situated along the border with Afghanistan and highly vulnerable to events in Afghanistan, are locked into each other in a complex of security dependencies. Tajikistan, which remained weak and politically fragile after having been through a civil war in 1992-1997, developed after the war into a major ally of Russia in Central Asia. Uzbekistan, acting in fear of its own Islamic opposition, contributed to tensions in the region especially in relation to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan increased Russia’s strategic concern as it gradually disengaged from Russian-led security cooperation and finally withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty (CST) in April 1999, and increased cooperation with the U.S.A.
The overthrow of the Taliban regime reduced the external threat to the Central Asian states, and improved the general security situation in the region. However, it also created a dilemma and a challenge to Russian policy. Russia was left behind as the U.S.A. took the lead in……………….
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