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IRAN ON THE WAY TO THE NUCLEAR BOMB?
(Analysis of Tehran’s Nuclear Missile Program)Sergey MINASIAN
Sergey Minasian, Ph.D. (Hist.), lecturer, Russian-Armenian State University Applied Politics and World Politics and International Relations departments, research associate with the National Academy of Sciences Institute of History (Erevan, Armenia)
Introduction
All the indications are that Iran’s nuclear missile program could be precipitated by the relatively small share of modern weapons in the country’s military arsenals, compared to those of its main neighbors as well as of Israel and the U.S. forces deployed in the Persian Gulf area. In the Cold War era, the conventional might of Warsaw Pact member countries threatened the stability and security of Western Europe. This imbalance in battlefield forces in Europe led to the development of tactical nuclear weapons for the European theater. The nuclear capability of NATO forces was seen as the great equalizer that would enable Western Europe to face off against the far superior conventional might of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. Likewise, in the context of the Middle East, Tehran could seek to close the gap in conventional weapons by pursuing a nuclear missile program, which could help deter external threats to its national security.
Iranian experts point to two sets of dangers threatening Iran: on the conventional level, and on the nuclear level. The first is reflected in the Western militaries’ high mobility, air power, electronic intelligence gathering and command and control networks as well as their sea-lifting capability, including in the Middle East.
The second includes regional and international nuclear powers. Some local experts believe that the nuclearization of the Middle East (Israel) and South Asia (India and Pakistan) has confronted the Islamic Republic of Iran with a basically new geostrategic environment with the growing likelihood of WMD being used in armed conflicts. Furthermore, these experts believe that, in the event of possible diplomatic standoffs, states in the region will to a very large extent be relying on their nuclear capability. Iranians are convinced that by far the most likely nuclear threat to Tehran comes from Israel. Given that any preemptive attack by Israel could cause the country irreparable, unacceptable damage, three options to protect itself against foreign aggression or unwanted interference are…………………
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