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THE KARABAKH CONFLICT: A LONG-TERM TRUCE

Tigran BALAIAN
Tigran Balaian, Ph.D. (Hist.), Attaché, Information and Public Relations Department, Foreign Ministry of Armenia (Erevan, Armenia)

The intermediaries managed to negotiate a cease-fire despite active hostilities in 1993 in the course of which the armed forces of Nagorny Karabakh had established their control over the neighboring Azerbaijanian areas. The cease-fire came into force on 12 May, 1994; for the rest of the year the short truces that lasted on the whole for 60 days convinced the sides and the intermediaries that similar agreements were absolutely viable.

Early in 1994, after several serious defeats of the Azerbaijanian army, the following situation became obvious along the entire perimeter of the theater of war. In mid-January the Azerbaijanian leaders launched a large-scale operation in the north of Karabakh to recapture the Omar Gorge and the Kelbajary District. At first it was going on smoothly; Azerbaijanian troops recaptured part of the district. Experts believe that Baku’s military successes were caused, among other things, by obviously cooler relations between Moscow and Erevan that followed the shelling of the motorcade of Vladimir Kazimirov, head of the Russian intermediary mission, at the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan (late in 1993). I am convinced that because of the Russian-Armenian crisis Baku refused to accept the truce the Russian side offered back in December 1993. In this context the statements by President Aliev of Azerbaijan about his intention to resolve the problem through talks looked strange.

In January the talks between the foreign ministers of Armenia (Vaan Papazian), Azerbaijan (Gasan Gasanov) and the Republic of Nagorny Karabakh (Arkadi Gukasian) mediated by Foreign Minister of Russia Andrey Kozyrev and head of the Russian intermediary mission Vladimir Kazimirov failed because the differences proved too deep. At that time Azerbaijan would have profited from a truce: its counteroffensive stalled, therefore Baku wanted to preserve what had been already gained.

When the Russian Foreign Ministry had failed to reach a truce, the Defense Ministry of Russia headed at that time by Pavel Grachev undertook the task. According to Vladimir Stupishin, the first ambassador of Russia to Armenia, it was back in 1993 that the Russian military had planned an intermediary mission without the RF Foreign Ministry.

Talks between the defense ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan and plenipotentiary representative of the Defense Army of the Republic of Nagorny Karabakh took place in Moscow on 18 February, 1994 on Grachev’s initiative. The sides signed a cease-fire protocol to come into force on 1 March, 1994 and established a buffer zone between the……………..

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