CENTRAL ASIA TODAY: A NEW WAVE OF WATER AND ENERGY COOPERATION AND PIPELINE ARCHITECTURE
Keywords:
Central Asia, water resources, energy policy, oil, gas, pipelines, Russia, the U.S., the EU, China.Abstract
In recent years, Central Asian countries have shown a readiness to increase their involvement in regional cooperation and interaction, particularly in the water, energy, and transportation sectors. These areas had long been neglected, which negatively impacted the regional economies.
Under mounting economic pressure and difficult situations, these countries had no choice but to revise their approaches to cooperation. Some external states have developed significant interest in the region’s countries, seeking a wider presence, especially in projects aimed at diversifying the supply of hydrocarbon reserves to external markets. Central Asian countries hoped that expanding pipeline infrastructure would consolidate their positions, help implement social and economic projects, create new jobs, open new opportunities for oil and gas exporters, and radically change the regional balance of power. As a result, they increased their efforts in extracting and exporting hydrocarbons.
These expectations were not fully realized. Dependence on external players as final consumers or transit territories was not significantly reduced. However, the new pipelines did break Russia's monopoly on hydrocarbon exports from the region, with Iran and China taking over. They used their control over price formation and purchase volumes to exert pressure on Central Asian exporters. The Central Asian states continued to expand their pipeline networks to reduce their dependence on neighboring countries.
Central Asian states are also rethinking their approaches to water use. The confrontations of the 1990s are being replaced with new initiatives for broader bilateral and multilateral cooperation in managing transboundary river water resources. The old problems inherited from the Soviet era, which were gradually ignored, have become more acute over time. Countries in the upper reaches of regional rivers face severe energy shortages in winter, while those in the lower reaches experience a critical water shortage in summer, crucial for agriculture.
After 2020-2025, water shortages in the region are expected to become absolute, with the total water consumption in Central Asian countries reaching levels that will force industrial enterprises to use less water. This situation will adversely affect regional economies and agriculture. Demographic growth and climate change will exacerbate these issues. Retreating glaciers and reduced snow cover threaten the runoff of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. The current push for compromises and consideration of all countries' interests is driven by the escalating problems in the water and energy sectors, primarily due to the unregulated use of transboundary river water.
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