Journal Name: Central Asia and the Caucasus ISSN 1404-6091 E-ISSN 2002-3839 Founded 2000 Scope Social sciences, political science, international relations, development, ocean engineering Indexing Indexed in Scopus from 2013 to 2021 Access Model Transitioned to gold open access in 2020; previously closed access Current Publisher Ninety Nine Publication Previous Publisher CA&C Press AB, Sweden We specialize in social sciences, political science, international relations, development, and ocean engineering.
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Politics of Failure: U.S. Miscalculation of Afghanistan’s Dynamics (1979–2021) and Lessons Learned
This study investigates the relationship between Afghanistan and the United States of America (U.S.) from 1979 to 2021, focusing on U.S. engagements with religious entities referred to as jihadi groups and its influence in establishing a new government post-2001. The analysis reveals that following the Soviet withdrawal in 1992, the U.S. also retreated from Afghanistan, resulting in a power vacuum that precipitated civil war and the emergence of the Taliban. After the Taliban's ousting in 2001, the U.S. facilitated the formation of a new government, national military, police, and intelligence agencies, while also launching disarmament initiatives and development projects. However, these endeavors encountered considerable obstacles, such as corruption, nepotism, and ineffective governance structures. The nation-building efforts faced opposition from the Pashtun ethnic group, many of whom supported the Taliban in opposition to contemporary state-building efforts. During peace talks, the Afghan government was marginalized, which bolstered the Taliban and ultimately allowed for their reconquest of Afghanistan in August 2021. The results underscore that the lack of a holistic approach to governance, security, development, and peace negotiations played a significant role in Afghanistan's persistent political turmoil.
Afghanistan, United State, Sate-building, peace negotiation, government failure.
Copyright (c) 2025 Mahram Ali Shebar (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
Contending Political Rationalities of Central Asian Regionalism
This article studies the problems of regionalism in Central Asia. Unlike Europe and Southeast Asia, which created strong organisations like the EU and ASEAN, Central Asia has weak and overlapping institutions. They do not provide real multilateral cooperation. Instead, foreign powers such as Russia, China, and the United States push their own projects. This often leads to bilateral ties rather than true regional integration. As a result, Central Asian states may lose influence in the international system. The paper argues that these states need to create their own regional project. Examples from the EU and ASEAN show that regionalism can succeed when local actors take the lead, even if foreign powers are present. The EU’s new policy toward Central Asia may help support this process.
Copyright (c) 2025 NURETTIN CAN (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
Geopolitics of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway: a cooperative game theory perspective
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway discussed for decades and encountered setbacks due to disagreements over financing, route alignment, and geopolitical concerns, has finally commenced its initial construction steps. Nevertheless, due to existing geopolitical tensions around Central Asia, the railway still faces risks way forward. The main objective of this paper is to consider possible approaches to the implementation of the cooperative game theory for the relationship between the major actors of the railway project and implication of the geopolitical factor on its future prospects. By applying to the cooperative game theory, we can analyze the strategic decisions of China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan in the context of the railway project, as well as the influence of external actors. This approach can provide a structured way to understand the complexities of the geopolitical dynamics at play and predict potential outcomes.
Copyright (c) 2025 Chen Wei, Dilfuza Turaeva, Wang Na (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
The Legal Framework for Artificial Intelligence in Brazil and its relationship with the curricula of Information Technology Degrees in the Country
This work presents a bibliographical review highlighting the importance of including the ethics of artificial intelligence and the use of technologies in undergraduate technology courses, understanding it to be a way of raising awareness among these professionals regarding the relevance of respecting the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence and the use of Technologies, as it is about guaranteeing citizens’ rights. To this end, the work conceptualizes artificial intelligence and presents the ethical debate surrounding Bill 2,338 of 2023, known as the Legal Framework for AI in Brazil, finally presenting some measures that, in the author’s point of view, would support the formation of information technology professionals in Brazil.
Copyright (c) 2025 Weysller Matuzinhos de Moura (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
A Comprehensive Review of Maintenance Strategies: From Reactive to Proactive Approaches
Maintenance strategies have evolved considerably, transitioning from reactive approaches to proactive methodologies. In this paper we investigate papers and compare different approaches and clarify what maintenance strategy more noticed and why. We are seeking to answer this question. A systematic review of 38 peer-reviewed paper will be conducted to identify which strategies are most commonly used. This study systematically reviews two primary branches of maintenance—reactive (corrective) and proactive (preventive and predictive) strategies—through a comprehensive analysis of academic literature. A structured collection of peer-reviewed papers was compiled from Scopus, Web of Science, and IEEE Xplore, using targeted keywords such as "maintenance strategy," "maintenance management," "reliability," and specific approaches ("Preventive Maintenance," "Condition-Based Maintenance," "Predictive Maintenance"). Our findings reveal that reactive maintenance, while simple and low-cost, often results in unplanned downtime and higher long-term expenses. In contrast, proactive methods (e.g., scheduled maintenance, condition-based monitoring) significantly improve operational efficiency, reduce failures, and optimize lifecycle costs. The evidence suggests that proactive strategies are the superior choice for industries where reliability and cost-effectiveness are critical.
Copyright (c) 2025 Yousof Gholipour, Mohsen Zare, Majid vaziri sereshk, Yasser Gholipour (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
The Crucial Role of the International North-South Transport Corridor in the Indo-Pacific
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) holds the potential to emerge as a significant route for fostering new economic opportunities within the Indo-Pacific region. This extensive transportation network, connecting the northern and southern hemispheres, holds paramount importance in fostering regional integration, economic development, and geopolitical stability. Economically, the corridor acts as a catalyst for increased trade and commerce, facilitating the efficient movement of goods between participating nations where it links diverse economic zones, reducing transportation costs and time, providing a significant boost to regional economies. The corridor's comprehensive infrastructure supports multimodal transportation, seamlessly integrating maritime, rail, and road networks.
Copyright (c) 2025 Ashkhen Gevorgya, Dr Monojit Da (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
THE ROLE OF THE TIMURID DYNASTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TURKIC CIVILIZATION: HISTORICAL, CULTURAL, SCIENTIFIC, AND LINGUISTIC ASPECTS
This article examines the role of the Timurid dynasty (1370–1506) in the development of Turkic civilization through the prism of historical, cultural, scientific, and linguistic aspects. The relevance of this work is due to the need to reconsider the contribution of the Timurids in the context of modern Turkological studies and the digital transformation of the humanities. The aim of the study is a comprehensive analysis of the influence of the Timurids on state-building, science, culture, and linguistic processes in Central Asia. The methodology includes historical-comparative analysis, linguistic reconstruction, and the application of digital technologies (including AI) for processing historical data. The practical significance of the work lies in the application of its results in historical science, linguistics, and cultural studies, as well as in educational programs aimed at preserving the Turkic heritage.
Copyright (c) 2025 Bobir Qurbanov, Dilafruz, Madina (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
Perspectives on Environmental Sustainability and Land Use Dynamics in Peri-urban Interface of Global South
Peri-urban transition drives rapid spatial manifestations and environmental changes at the urban periphery on a global scale. The heterogeneous peripheral morphologies of the Global South depict land use changes, rapid real estate growth, and unplanned development. Peri-urban regions face the challenges of dynamic metropolitan growth and the pressures of globalization. Peri-urban areas differ globally; they differ in economic and social factors. The rural-urban frontier is a complex transition area in the Global South. Peri-urbanisation leads to population expansion, but often, these pressures compromise environmental qualities in the Global South. However, this transition process can be harnessed with the right strategies for positive change. Land use change is a major challenge to sustainability, leading to a decline in agriculture and environmental challenges. This paper addresses sustainable urbanisation as an alternative path for confronting these challenges and fostering sustainability in the Global South.
Copyright (c) 2025 AMRUTHA MARY VARKEY, Jayakumar Chinnasamy, Eby Johny (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
Economic Integration and Security Challenges in Central Asia: Navigating Trade Liberalization, Regional Connectivity, and Collective Security in a Globalized Era
This paper examines key factors influencing contemporary global dynamics, with a specific focus on economic integration, trade liberalization, the external security environment, and connectivity in the Central Asian Republics (CARs). The study found a deficiency in economic cooperation and integration among the CARs, marked by trade deficits, inadequate trade infrastructure, and a scarcity of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. CAR faces significant security threats, including equitable water resource utilisation, drug trafficking, ethnic conflicts, systematised crime, international terrorism, and religious radicalism. Despite these challenges, the region contends with acute internal issues. Terrorism remains an enduring potential threat, exacerbated by political instability and deprived governance, posing substantial threats to the CARs outlook. Therefore, it is recommended that the CARs prioritise fostering economic cooperation, enhancing economic integration, and establishing signed bilateral and multilateral agreements among them. Resolving internal and external security issues through collaborative efforts and collectively addressing the threat of international terrorism.
Central Asia, Economic Integration, Central Asian Trade, Security Environment, CARs
Copyright (c) 2025 Chittaranjan Senapati (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
Bridging Knowledge: The Role of Preservation Materials in Safeguarding Library Collections and Enhancing Cultural Continuity
Libraries have long been the custodians of humanity’s collective knowledge, safeguarding cultural, historical, and intellectual heritage for future generations. However, the passage of time, environmental factors, and human handling pose significant threats to the longevity of library collections, which often include rare manuscripts, historical documents, and fragile artifacts. Preservation materials are essential tools in addressing these challenges, offering effective solutions to mitigate decay and deterioration (American Library Association, 2020). Acid-free papers, archival boxes, protective films, and deacidification sprays are some of the specialized materials that play a critical role in maintaining the integrity of collections. These materials are designed to counteract environmental and chemical factors that cause damage, ensuring that books, documents, and other resources remain accessible for centuries
Copyright (c) 2024 Author https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
How can Uzbekistan engage its diaspora for national development?
Remittances alone cannot drive economic development. Policies, strategies, and institutions are essential to channel diaspora resources toward national development. Uzbekistan is one of the top remittance-receiving countries with a growing number of diaspora. Currently, the country lacks formal diaspora engagement policies. The main goal of the third study is to propose policy recommendations for engaging the Uzbek diaspora. Our results show that the country has its uniqueness in terms of diaspora. Diaspora policies should start with establishing a dedicated institution, granting legal status, and providing financial mechanisms for investment and incentives for the diaspora.
Copyright (c) 2024 Masuda Isaeva (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
Health Diplomacy and Crisis Management during COVID-19: Analyzing Chinese Influence and Economic Implications in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Italy
This article investigate the role of health diplomacy in shaping the responses to the COViD - 19 pandemic in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Italy, with a particular focus on the influence of Chinese strategies and their economic implications. Through a comparative theoretical analysis, the study explores how these regions managed the crisis, hightlighting the intersection of healthcare policies, crisis management strategies, and international diplomacy. The findings demostrate the significant impact of of Chinese health diplomacy, particularly thorugh vaccine distribution and medical aid, on the healthcare responses in Central Asia and the Caucasus, and to a lesser extent in Italy. The economic ramificaionts of these diplomatic efforts are also examined, revealing how health diplomacy has come to a pivotal tool in global health governance and regional influence. The article concludes with policy recommendations, emphasizing the need for strengthened health diplomacy and international cooperation in future global health crises.
Copyright (c) 2024 Matteo Maria Cati (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
THE EFFECT OF EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE ON MANAGERS' PERFORMANCE AND LEADERSHIP STYLE (CASE STUDY: KARAJ MUNICIPALITY MANAGERS)
Management literature indicates that management skills in general and emotional intelligence in particular play a decisive role in managers' success in the workplace. However, managers in developing countries, including Iran, always face such problems as relationship management and conflict of personal and organizational interests. This problem arises from the fact that they lack communication skills, particularly emotional intelligence. managers with higher emotional intelligence have a higher ability in making decisions and managing emotions compared with other managers. In practice, they are less likely to be in conflict with personal and collective interests and are more efficient in building a network of communications. Considering the above and using Bar-On Emotional Quotient Inventory (Bar-On EQ-i), Salzmann (1982) Leadership Style Questionnaire, Pearson correlation coefficient, and t-test, this study investigated the role of emotional intelligence in organizational performance and leadership style of Karaj Municipality managers. The results showed that emotional intelligence was approximately 95% able to predict organizational performance and leadership style.
Copyright (c) 2024 Mahdi Akhavan, Mohammad Mahdi Golshahi , Reza Jamalpour (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
DEMOCRATIC PROCESS AND POLITICAL CULTURE IN CENTRAL ASIAN STATES
The paper is related to democratic process and political culture in Central Asian states. Democracy is strongly influenced by particular political cultures. Political culture articulates people’s rules and behaviour within their political world. Political culture influences how people see their political world and what they expect from it. For example, Alexis de Tocqueville, argued in his classic work “Democracy in America” that “American democracy was articulated by American values and attitudes”. In a democratic society, individual citizens have the power and right to influence decisions about how their country will be governed. According to the constitutions of the republics, they are sovereign, secular, and democratic republics. Sovereign means an independent nation. Secular implies freedom to choose your religion, which means the state gives every citizen the right to practice and propagate a religion of his choice, the state treats all religions as equal, and there is no official state religion. In a democracy, political parties act as the bridge between social thought and political decisions. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the independent Central Asian republics introduced a multi-party system, periodic elections, etc. to strengthen democracy. The emergence of political parties and groups in the region was the outcome of Mikhail Gorbachev's reform policy, called Glasnost and Perestroika. Central Asia has been able to sustain its democracy quite successfully with periodic elections and increasing active participation of people. The objective of this study is to examine the various models of democracy and political culture. This study focused on the role of the state (the constitution, political parties, election commission, parliament, judicial system, and fundamental rights) and non-state actors (citizens, social movements, and the media) in making the Central Asian democracy more vibrant.
Copyright (c) 2024 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
THE NEW MEDIA AND TRANSFORMATION OF THE PUBLIC POLITICAL SPHERE IN GEORGIA
Today, when information technology is sweeping the world, it is commonly thought that the social media have essentially pushed the traditional media aside to emerge as an important factor behind public opinion. This is especially obvious in countries where the traditional media (including TV) lack pluralism and operate under the pressure of the powers that be. Georgia is one such country, where the social media serve as a lifebuoy for the public political sphere. They provide the luxury of interactive communication, while the traditional media drown the audience in unidirectional information flows. This means that the social media not merely disseminate information, they serve as a platform for political discussions (something which Georgia lacked in the past). It has become absolutely clear that people are not indifferent to political issues— this is confirmed by the heated discussions on the Internet. According to the polls conducted by the Georgian National Communications Commission (GNCC), the Georgian population prefers to watch entertainment and sports events than to ponder on political issues. This means that the country will not acquire new public-political TV and radio channels any time soon. Meanwhile, the Internet and social media are rapidly developing
Copyright (c) 2011 AUTHOR https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL ASIAN MASS MEDIA RESEARCH
The end of the Cold War represented an apparent victory for NATO, capitalism, free enterprise, and democracy over the Warsaw Pact, Marxism-Leninist communism, and the Russian Soviet empire. In 1991, five newly independent republics of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) emerged from the wreckage of that watershed event. Each new government proclaimed its commitment to free enterprise economic systems and democratic governance. Western democracies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and human rights groups lauded that commitment to democratic mass media systems as stabilizing, modernizing, and nation-building tools. Unfortunately, significant obstacles remain to functional and effective press systems able to maintain economic, editorial, and political autonomy. Because Russian and Soviet-era press conventions still strongly influence the press in Central Asia, this article begins with a brief overview of the Russian colonial and czarist press system from the 1860s to the Russian Revolution of 1917. It then presents a brief history of press controls under the Soviet Union. Thus, forms of Russian domination of Central Asian journalism persisted for almost 130 years, leaving deeply entrenched czarist-Soviet press methods, controls, and traditions. The study then summarizes significant arenas of contemporary research on Central Asian mass media, including detailed evidence of the complexity, diversity, and depth of barriers to free and effective press systems. It establishes that imposed Soviet-era journalism philosophy and practices remain much of the foundation for current professional ideology. Although there were some positive aspects to the Soviet press system, inherited professional habits, conventions, ideology, and socialist economics still obstruct adoption of aspects of Western models hallmarked by independent journalism and advocacy of a more operative form of social responsibility to audiences. The article then outlines the conflict between external and internal pressures to establish free and democratic press systems where regimes actively resist such efforts. That resistance includes formal and informal policies of censorship and repression that restrain journalists and the mass media they serve.
PROBLEMS OF EUROPEAN COMMODITY SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS REGION
The Russia-Ukraine “gas wars” and the cold winter that hit Southern and Central Europe in January 2006 and 20091 highlighted Europe’s commodity insecurity and its dependence on Russian good will. In all fairness, it should be noted that some studies on this topic appeared even before the “cold winter” of 2009,2 but their impact on the leadership of the European Commission was insignificant, to put it mildly. This is evident from the fact that prior to the 2009 crisis the International Energy Agency did not see any pitfalls in European energy security.3 The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy was much more far-sighted. Back in 2005 it already argued the need to reduce, as far as possible, Russia’s influence on the energy sector and developed a model for international trade in gas known as the Baker Institute World Gas Trade Model (BIWGTM).4 Thus, there is evidence of Europe’s commodity insecurity, and any international conflicts interrupting the steady flow of raw materials to this region can have grave consequences for the daily life of Europeans and the stability of their democratic governments
KYRGYZSTAN: POLITICAL HISTORY OF TWO DECADES OF INDEPENDENCE
For over twenty years now the Soviet-successor states have been building new statehoods in the territory that used to be the Soviet Union; not all of them have been equally successful, but each has hastened to declare its devotion to democratic ideals and principles. During the first ten years of its independence Kyrgyzstan looked like a Central Asian “island of democracy”; since that time, however, the country has lived through two regime changes accompanied by the use of force, bloodshed, and mass disturbances. Below is a summary of the country’s political experience during the two decades of its independence.
LEVEL OF SOCIAL CONFLICT POTENTIAL IN KAZAKHSTAN: POSSIBLE RISKS AND THREATS
As world experience shows, countries that embark on the path of socioeconomic and political modernization are likely to encounter a rise in social tension and the emergence of numerous conflicts. The Republic of Kazakhstan is well versed in the prevention of these phenomena. Nevertheless, modernization in Kazakhstan is bringing to the fore other problems relating to efficient conflict management and finding peaceful constitutionally legal ways to carry out comprehensive reform of society. It is a well-known fact that the aggravation of contradictions and the political conflicts in the post-Soviet states, which in some cases have led to armed conflicts, are undoubtedly related both to historical prerequisites and to crisis phenomena in the development of the sociocultural, socioeconomic, and political spheres of public relations. However, we think that one of the main reasons for the emergence of the domestic political conflicts in the CIS countries has been the poor development of ways to prevent and regulate them. So strategies and efficient mechanisms must be sought for taking preventive measures against possible social upheavals and the outbreak of conflict action and for reaching a consensus among the political entities. It goes without saying that an entirely conflict-free society with ideal social relations is a utopia. Institutionalized conflicts are a different matter however, since they potentially perform a constructive function and help society to progress. The author of this article concentrates on potentially destructive conflicts, the settlement of which could be accompanied by social upheavals.
TWENTY YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE IN KAZAKHSTAN AND KYRGYZSTAN: WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT— POLITICAL OR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT?
The dispute about what is more important, political or economic development, is like the philosophical discussions of what came first, the chicken or the egg. However, despite the ongoing debates, the answer, we think, is obvious: long-term and stable development of society is only possible with mutual agreement and complementarity, as well as parallel (joint) advancement of political and economic reforms. This is clearly shown by the 20 years of independence in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, two neighboring countries which chose different paths of development.
AFGHANISTAN’S POLITICAL SYSTEM: INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS, INTERNAL RESOURCES, AND UNTAPPED RESERVES
A democratic political system is the key to Afghanistan’s future prosperity. The world community is convinced of this, while the already achieved legitimization and democratization of power in this country have inspired its neighbors, the Arab Spring countries, and the Muslim East as a whole. However, the Taliban and its abettors in other countries and other more civilized forces (acting on the sly or even openly) are determined to block the road to progress. The main parameters of the political process in Afghanistan were outlined and accepted as a guide to action ten years ago: a new constitution; a state ruled by law; efficient institutions of state governance; a civil society and political parties as one of its elements; human rights; and a Road Map to free elections. A stronger political system has remained on the agenda of several consecutive international conferences in Bonn (2001); Berlin (2004); London (2006 and 2010), Rome (2007), Paris (2008), Moscow (2009) and The Hague (2009). It is not easy to study the country’s political system during the transition period, identify its context, pinpoint its problems, and outline its prospects. It is much easier to dissect the entire structure of state power (in fact, today the term “political system” looks a bit conservative), which cannot be done in the case of Afghanistan because of the ever-widening involvement of non-state civil institutions in politics. In short, we should take into account all the entities of Afghan politics. The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has supplied the expert community with a unique target of integrated studies. I have in mind three fairly “widely spaced” components: (1) The relations between the International Security Assistance Force — ISAF members, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, the Soviet successor states in Central Asia, etc. (2) The country’s own past and present. (3) Its development prospects.
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL ASIAN REGION DURING INDEPENDENCE
The Central Asian states are currently attracting the keen attention of the world community due to the geopolitical significance of their location next to China, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Afghanistan, as well as to economic factors (natural and human resources and transit potential for transcontinental trade). The countries of the region, which enjoys considerable natural and human resources, are vastly different from each other in terms of territorial dimensions, population size, economic potential, mineral reserves, and state of the social, environmental, and managerial spheres. This article takes a look at how human resources are faring in the Central Asian region after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the formation of the newly independent states.
THE INSTITUTION OF PRESIDENCY IN THE CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES: PERSONALIZATION VS. INSTITUTIONALIZATION
Much has been written about the institution of presidency and its traps, which are especially dangerous in political regimes undergoing transition.1 Some authors agree that during transition to a new regime, the presidential form of government (as an alternative to deposed dictatorship) makes it harder to consolidate democracy, while the parliamentary (or parameterized semi-presidential form) leads to stronger democracy. I have already written that today political institutionalization and consolidation of political regimes pose a greater challenge for the Soviet successor-states than making the transition from authoritarianism to democracy. In other words, they must achieve political stability and manageability.2 None of the post-Soviet political regimes of the CIS countries can be described as a consolidated democracy. They differ in “the presence or absence of consolidation and stability of their political regimes.”3 It seems that the Central Asian region is more vulnerable than the rest of the post-Soviet expanse to threats to political consolidation: there are too many pending social, economic, demographic, environmental, and ethnic problems. The list is longer still: zero experience of pre-Soviet statehood; no consensus among the states on border issues; politicization of Islam; the threat of terrorism; and having an unstable Afghanistan as its closest neighbor. This explains why some authors look at the five Central Asian states as a homogenous entity, while the degree of manageability and the extent of regime consolidation differ from country to country. Political institutionalization is the most important single factor of regime stability interpreted as rationalizing (Max Weber) political institutions as sustainable, meaningful, and reproducible forms of behavior. The level of political institutionalization “is the extent to which political organizations and procedures exist independently of other social groupings” (the family, clan, or class) or an individual.4
SEPARATION OF POWERS IN THE STATES OF CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS
Today practical realization of the classical principle of the separation of powers in all states (in the states of Central Asia and the Caucasus, two regions of key importance, in particular) has acquired special urgency as directly related to global, national, and regional security. Indeed, coordinated functioning of independent and interacting branches of state power (legislative, executive, and judicial) is part of a reasonable and adequate foreign policy which stems from the country’s national interests and to a great extent helps the state deal with threats, risks, and challenges. The experience of state development and the application of the separation of powers principle in nine countries (Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) has already confronted the expert community with a set of far from simple questions about the role of the traditional forms of governance; the way the classical principles should be borrowed and applied; and the impact of starting conditions on what the governments, parliaments, and courts of the newly independent states can do. Not infrequently those undertaking the reforms refer to the threats to national security to explain what has or has not been done; in some countries reforms degenerated into a pure formality, etc. I have deliberately included Afghanistan, the specific conditions of which set it apart from the post-Soviet states, and will show how it is developing into a unique platform on which historical and national elements are being strengthened to move the country toward democracy. All the developed democracies are closely following the political reforms underway in Afghanistan and are extending it ever larger amounts of humanitarian aid. It is expected that the discussion about the future political system of Afghanistan that will unfold at the May 2012 meeting in Chicago with NATO allies and partners convened “to shape the next phase of this transition” will be very intensive.
THE EUROPEAN UNION IS READJUSTING ITS CENTRAL ASIAN STRATEGY
As soon as the Soviet Union fell apart, Central Asia, together with the rest of the post-Soviet expanse, became part of so-called political Europe, that is, it was drawn into the EU’s sphere of interests on the strength of the OSCE membership of all the post-Soviet states. The European Union’s strategy and policy in Central Asia are not directly related to the region’s military-strategic security, although they can indirectly affect it through (1) European institutions such as the OSCE, the European Commission, the European Parliament, etc.; (2) the policy of the European powers (the U.K., Germany, and France in particular); and (3) NATO, the military-political institution that unites most of the EU countries. The EU is guided in its Central Asian policy by two very important considerations. First, as distinct from the U.S., China, and even Russia (which have no conceptual documents related to the region), the European Union is the only geopolitical actor that has a strategy outlined in detail in a document entitled The EU’s Central Asia Strategy adopted in 2007, even though it has not yet shown its efficiency or produced any impressive results. Second, the European Union demonstrates its preference for “soft power” at the conceptual and practical levels as opposed to the use of force as a traditional geopolitical instrument. This is true of Brussels’ foreign policy in Central Asia and elsewhere. The European political community is convinced that sustainable democratic and secular regimes in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus will create a security belt of sorts to protect Europe from the unstable regions of the Muslim world. On the whole, however, European political analysts have not yet decided whether the EU needs Central Asia and to what extent. The EU members, however, never hesitate to support their companies functioning in Central Asia (particularly in the energy sector) to ensure a steady flow of oil and gas from this fuel-rich region.1
THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION (2001-2011): TASKS, RESULTS, AND PROSPECTS
On 15 June, 2011, the tenth anniversary summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was held in Astana. The declaration adopted at the summit stated in particular that “the decision to create the SCO was a strategically calculated step,” while “the choice made by the SCO member states at the beginning of the 21st century to intensify good neighborly, friendly, and partner relations in the region was a commendable example for the world community. Its member states … have laid a strong foundation for the organization’s efficient functioning aimed at jointly ensuring peace, security, and stability, as well as developing multifaceted cooperation in the SCO expanse in the political, economic, humanitarian, and other spheres.” The SCO has indeed become a phenomenon of global dimensions. During the first years of the organization’s existence, the necessary regulatory framework and relevant institutions for carrying out its activity were set up. Several dozen essential documents were signed, such as the SCO Charter, the Treaty on Long-Term Good-Neighborly Relations, Friendship, and Cooperation, the Shanghai Convention on the Fight Against Terrorism, Separatism, and Extremism, the Agreement on Cooperation in the Fight Against the Illicit Circulation of Drugs, Psychotropic Substances, and Their Precursors, the Agreement on Cooperation in the Fight against Crime, the Agreement on Cooperation in Ensuring International Information Security, and other intergovernmental agreements. Over the past years, the system of SCO structures (which includes the Council of Heads of State, the Council of Heads of Government, the Council of Foreign Ministers, and the Council of National Coordinators) has been supplemented with annual meetings of the secretaries of the member states’ security councils and regular sittings of the defense and internal affairs ministers and the heads of anti-drug departments. The SCO Secretariat has been established in Beijing, while the SCO regional antiterrorist structure (RATS) functions in Tashkent. Mechanisms of interbranch cooperation (from the expert to the ministerial level) have been set up and a whole series of specific cooperation projects in various areas have been launched. The international community’s recognition of the SCO is proof of its growing significance; for example, the U.N. granted the organization the status of observer and signed a memorandum on cooperation with it. Such structures as ESCAPO and the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, as well as many regional organizations, including the CSTO, EurAsEC, CIS, and ASEAN, have established official contacts with the SCO. As of today, India, Iran, Mongolia, and Pakistan are observers in the SCO, and Belarus and Sri Lanka are dialog partners; representatives of Afghanistan and Turkmenistan participate in some of the organization’s undertakings. The SCO’s potential is not merely the arithmetic sum of the potential of its participating states, although the fact that China and Russia are members gives it enough of a name in itself. The SCO is an entity of qualitatively new dimensions; most experts think that its appearance in the region has given rise to a force capable of realistically opposing the challenges and threats to security and has become an important component of the geopolitical landscape (regional and even global). At the same time, it is obvious that the evolution of the world situation, the events in Afghanistan and Central Asia (CA), and the economic integration and energy cooperation processes in the Eurasian expanse are making ever higher demands on the regional organizations functioning here. In this respect, very legitimate questions arise: “Does the SCO meet these demands? What is the real potential of this organization currently celebrating its anniversary? What vectors and forms could the organization’s transformation take in the short and mid-term, keeping in mind the forecasted development of events, and how will this affect the interests of its members, statutory goals, and practical capabilities?”
CENTRAL ASIA AS A REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX1
According to the Failed States Index developed by the Foreign Policy magazine, for the last five years three of the CA states, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, have been among the 60 weakest states in the world. Turkmenistan “left” this group only in 2011. Kazakhstan is the only CA state, which has been considered to be a relatively sustainable state.2 Despite these alarming statistics, the region gave the impression of relative stability. There have not been any major conflicts in CA since the Tajik civil war. However, the tragic events in the South of Kyrgyzstan of June 2010 have revealed the vulnerability of the region to various security threats. For two decades of independent existence, CA has attracted significant academic attention. Nowadays, one can distinguish several directions in the literature devoted to the analysis of CA and its particular countries. Some studies focus on the interests of great or regional powers in the region. Many scholars explore the political systems of CA countries by studying the undemocratic nature of CA regimes, while others focus on transnational threats to regional stability, such as the influence of Islamic terrorism, religious extremism, and organized crime. However, despite the wide variety of security studies on CA, until now, one can discern a lack of inclusive analysis focusing on a combination of different aspects of the regional security. The present article argues that the current security architecture in CA can be better explained by considering all levels of CA insecurity. In this regard, the combination of Barry Buzan’s Regional Security Complex theory and Karl W. Deutsch’s concept of security community proves to be a valuable tool for analyzing the regional security.
THE INFLUENCE OF GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
There are many studies that show how a country’s production capacity greatly depends on its geographical location. Most economic production indices are characterized by a simple regressive dependence in production volume density (GDP per 1 sq. km) on geographic variables (average annual temperature, average annual amount of precipitation, altitude above sea level, ruggedness of landscape, soil categories, access to the sea, etc.). Does this mean that geographic factors are determining the fate of a country’s development? If so, to what extent? If not, what measures should be taken to ensure long-term economic growth? We will try to shed light on these and other issues in this article.
ARMENIA’S ENERGY SECURITY: MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES
After the accident at the Fukusima Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, Armenia’s energy industry found itself in the center of attention not only of its own country, but also, to some extent, of the world community. This interest was largely aroused by the need to re-examine the attitude toward nuclear power safety. In their comments about Armenia’s Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, local and international experts reminded us of two important facts: 1. About the energy crisis at the beginning of the 1990s caused by the blockade of Armenia and the closing down of the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant in 1989. 2. About the plans to close down the restarted Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant in 2016. The accident in Japan gave reason to think about the most important questions of Armenia’s energy security: “What is the level of the country’s energy security? How does closing the existing nuclear power plant affect the country’s energy security? Will a new nuclear power plant be built?” In this article, we will discuss precisely these questions, focusing particular attention on the political and economic aspects of the problem.
ASSESSMENT OF CENTRAL ASIA’S OIL AND GAS RESERVES AND THEIR BUDDING SALES MARKETS (THE EU AND CHINA)
In recent years, significant funds have been invested in creating and improving new sources of energy (wind and solar energy, the production of biofuel, and so on), however most experts admit that there is still no alternative to oil and natural gas. Moreover, the importance of oil and gas resources will continue to increase even more in the next few years, particularly after the accident at Japan’s Fukusima-1 Nuclear Power Plant, which has revitalized the problem of nuclear energy safety. The world (particularly Europe) has been calling loud and clear for the operation of nuclear power plants to be halted and the use of nuclear energy to be eliminated altogether. If the use of nuclear energy declines, global oil and natural gas consumption will most certainly increase, as its steady rise in past decades already confirms. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2010, the amount of oil consumed by the world economy rose by 2.8 million barrels and reached a level of 87.8 million barrels a day. In 2011, this index is expected to exceed 90 million barrels for the first time in history.1 Of course, this figure is slightly lower than the earlier forecast due to the global financial-economic crisis of 2008- 2009.