Murat Laumulin, D.Sc. (Political Science), Chief Research Fellow, Kazakhstan Institute of Strategic Studies under the President of the RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan)


Its geographic location, domestic political complications, ethno-confessional diversity, and involvement in the global shadow economy keep Afghanistan in the center of the intertwining interests of state and extra-state forces. This threatens the countrys immediate neighbors and even whole regions and explains the never weakening interest of Pakistan, India, Iran, the Central Asian Soviet successor-states, China, and Russia in what is going on in this country.

Keywords: Afghanistan, Central Asia, security, the Taliban, drug trafficking, ethno-confessional diversity, the Afghan problem, Afghanistan after 2014.


In the last two years, the world political scientific community has been actively discussing the possible post-2014 developments in Afghanistan; as the event draws closer, all sorts of think tanks, funds, and institutions have been coming up with more and more scenarios.

The leading Western centers, such as the RAND Corporation, the Carnegie Endowment, the Institute of Central Asia and the Caucasus at Johns Hopkins University, Chatham House of the UK, and the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI), to name a few, are looking for every possible answer to the question: What will happen in Afghanistan after the Western pullout? The Friedrich Ebert Foundation of Germany set up a network of groups staffed with experts from the Central Asian republics, Pakistan, India, Iran, Turkey, China, and Russia to monitor the situation and forecast possible developments inside and..

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