Coercive Migration Engineering as a Tool of Hybrid Pressure in the Wider Post-Soviet Security Space: Operation Lockgate and Lessons for Central Asia and the Caucasus
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61841/wmwerf02Abstract
Background: Coercive migration engineering has become an important instrument of hybrid pressure across the wider post-Soviet security space. Objectives: This article analyses the Poland-Belarus border crisis, commonly referred to in Polish security debate as Operation Lockgate, as a case of migration instrumentalisation with implications for regional security, public legitimacy and decision-making resilience. Methods: The study uses a qualitative single-case design combining documentary analysis, qualitative content analysis and functional process tracing. It examines literature on forced migration as coercion, migration diplomacy, Russian active measures, reflexive control, information-psychological operations and cognitive warfare. Results: The analysis identifies four mutually reinforcing lines of effort: political pressure, security and military resource absorption, social and humanitarian polarisation, and information-cognitive amplification. It shows that the strategic value of an engineered migration flow lies not only in physical movement across a border but also in the narratives, timing and decision pressure attached to that movement. Conclusions: Operation Lockgate demonstrates that migration instrumentalisation should be treated as a multidimensional security challenge relevant beyond the EU-Belarus border. Border resilience depends on lawful control, humanitarian credibility, interagency coordination, evidence-based communication and regional learning.
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