KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA: RELATIONS AS PART OF RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY

Abstract

In 2006 and 2007, the geopolitical situation around Central Asia underwent changes, some of which were quite substantial. The great powers shifted their political accents and re-adjusted cooperation formats. Energy moved to the forefront to become one of the new issues and centerpiece of the EU strategy. The rapidly worsening relations between Russia and the West are another geopolitically important factor. Russia had a strong, though not always obvious, impact on the region’s geopolitical context. In fact, the entire range of relations (transport, economy, energy, and the humanitarian issues) between the EU and Central Asia cannot be correctly assessed without taking into account the Russian Federation. Russia’s presence in the region (either obvious or hidden from the eye) and the vector of its relations with Europe have put an energy alliance between Moscow, other important energy producers, and transit countries on the agenda.
 The worsening relations between Russia and the West (particularly with the United States, the EU, NATO, and OSCE) are a fact, the nature and repercussions of which look long-term and varied. It has already spread to cooperation in the economic and energy spheres, military-strategic stability, the counterterrorist struggle, and geo-political and geo-economic cooperation between Russia and the West in Asia, Latin America, the Balkans, Africa, and the Middle East and, most important, in the CIS.
 The wave of Color Revolutions that swept the post-Soviet expanse in 2003-2005 was in fact the first (still latent) clash of Russian and West-ern interests. To keep up appearances, the sides refrained for a while from openly discussing them contradictions and problems. The West interpret-ed the strengthening of the SCO as one of the first signs that its relations with Russia were going downhill: in 2005 this regional organization raised the question of the time limits of Ameri-ca’s military presence in Central Asia. Since 2006 (Vice-President Cheney’s speech in Lithua-nia), Washington has been criticizing Moscow quite openly.
 Planned transportation routes and pipelines for the Central Asian and Caspian hydrocarbons have become a field of open clashes and geopolitical and geo-economic rivalry. The EU, with the United States by its side, is talking about “the diversification of energy deliveries” to its markets, an undisguised anti-Russian position. This and other factors, as well as the U.S. and NATO presence in the region, suggest that the rapidly worsening relations between Russia and the West will affect the Central Asian states’ international and geopolitical situation.
 On the whole, Russia’s elites are fully aware of the fact that the relations with the CIS members are their country’s absolute foreign policy priority. It is in this sphere that Russia’s main economic interests and security concerns are concentrated, and it is this sphere that creates the most serious threats. Russian political analysts and politicians agree that the country should retain its main role on the post-Soviet expanse and should prevent its “erosion” caused by the gradually in-creasing involvement of the West and its institutions. It is commonly believed that in Central Asia Russia should fully tap the possibilities offered by the CSTO, EurAsEC, and SCO. To achieve this, Russia should offer attractive, competitive, and realistic prospects for both the political elites and the public at large.