BUILDING A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH KAZAKHSTAN (A Blueprint for India’s Central Asia Policy)
Abstract
India has not been able to make significant inroads into Central Asia, a region of vital strategic importance. Central Asia had a considerable impact on the polity and economy all through Indian history. Trade routes linking ancient Starpath to the Silk Road also carried Indian religion, philosophy and science beyond to Inner and Eastern Asia.1 The British India’s security and frontier trade policy with East Turkistan and Afghanistan is well known. People of Central Asian republics always looked toward India with fondness even while they were under Russian dominance or even when they became part of the Soviet system. The Soviet disintegration created fresh opportunities, with new states also looking toward India for political and economic sustenance. By opening missions in the five capitals, providing substantive development aid and technical support, several Prime Ministerial visits and cooperation agreements in diverse fields, India evolved its “extended neighborhood” policy but somehow it could not transcend its nostalgia for Soviet times.
While Pakistani diplomacy in the region throughout the 1990s aimed at averting India’s reach to Central Asia, India was compelled to tread with caution lest the spread of Islamic fundamentalism and the Pakistani exploitation of the regional environment become detrimental to India’s interests. India supported a number of regional initiatives including India-Iran-Turkmenistan tripartite railway-line goodwill, India has not been able to make commercial progress in Central Asia or has achieved significant stakes in region’s strategic mineral and energy resource. India’s total trade with the region is only about $230 million (see the table). The recent failure of bid for PetroKazakhstan by OVL-Mittal combine only reinforced the impression that India lacks a clearly defined Central Asia policy. Influential circles feel that India’s policy is directionless, uncoordinated, unfocused and devoid of an over-all strategic intent.3
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In the ancient Indian literature the land beyond the Himalayas from Pamir up to Arctic was described as Uttar-Kuru. Radha Kumud Mookerji citing Vedic literature mentions about countries Uttara-Kuru and Uttara-Madra, the ruler of which was known as Virat (see: Fundamental Unity of India, Hindustan Cellulose & Paper Co. Ltd. Bombay, 1954;see also: B.B. Kumar, “Central Asia: The Indian Links,” Dialogue, Vol. 3. No. 4, April-June 2002).
See: P. Stobdan, “Regional Issues in Central Asia: Implications for South Asia,” South Asian Survey, Vol. 5,No. 2, 1998 (Sage Publications, New Delhi).
See: P. Stobdan, “Central Asia and India’s Security,” Strategic Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 1, Jan-March 2004.
On 5 July, 2005, the SCO issued a declaration calling for the United States to set a timeline for its withdrawal of military forces from the region (see: Kommersant-Daily, 5 July, 2005; see also: [http://www.sectsco.org/
ews_detail.asp?id=649&LanguageID=2]).
On 29 July, Uzbek President Islam Karimov informed the United States that it has 180 days to vacate the Karshi-Khanabad air base it has used to support operations in Afghanistan since late 2001.
Uzbek President Islam Karimov visited China in May end 2005. It was his first trip abroad since the bloody crack-down on protesters in Andijan. Beijing announced that it “strongly” backs Uzbekistan’s response to the events of 13 May.
zbek opposition parties said around 1,000 people died after security forces opened fire on protesters. Uzbek authorities say 169 people—troops, civilians, and militants—were killed in the clashes. China and Uzbekistan signed a $600 million joint oil venture during his visit (see: People’s Daily and [http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/5/8AEC6277-B0A6-450A-8E08-CBCE0B4688B2]).
India has important role in Central Asia (rediff.com) [ http://specials.rediff.com/news/2006/mar/29sld1.htm]. Am-bassador Richard Boucher, who replaced Christina Rocca as the new Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, said the expanded bureau with the addition of Central Asia, has opened up new opportunities and that India has a “very important role to play” in this region.
The SAARC leaders on 14 November, 2005 admitted Afghanistan as a full member of the South Asian regional body. Besides, China and Japan got “observer status” to the SAARC.
In May 2005, President Bush and President Karzai jointly announced creation of a Strategic Partnership between the United States and Afghanistan, with the mutual goals of enhancing the long-term security, democracy and prosperity of Afghanistan.
“Afghan President Hamid Karzai during His Visit to New Delhi on 9-10 April Called for a Tri-Polar Structure for Economic Cooperation,” Hindustan Times, 10 April, 2005.
“The Growing Importance of Japan’s Engagement in Central Asia,” available at [http://www.pinr.com/
eport.php?ac=view_report&report_id=442&language_id=1].
The Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program is an ADB-supported initiative to encourage economic cooperation in Central Asia that began in 1997. The primary objective of the CAREC Program is to promote economic growth and raise living standards in its member countries by encouraging regional economic cooperation. The Program concentrated on financing infrastructure projects and improving the region’s policy environment in the priority areas
of transport, trade facilitation, trade policy, and energy. The Program consists of ADB’s member countries in the Central Asian region, namely: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, People’s Republic of China (focusing on Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region), Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. CAREC is also an alliance of multilateral institutions comprising Asian Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, Islamic Development Bank, United Nations Development Program, and World Bank. Afghanistan partic-ipated for the first time in the Ministerial meeting of the CAREC in Bishkek in November 2005, available at [http://
ww.mof.gov.af/english/CAREC.htm].
Protocol on establishment of SCO-Afghanistan contact group between Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Islamic Republic of Afghanistan was established with the purpose of elaborating proposals and recommendations on real-ization of cooperation between the two on issues of mutual interest. It was singed on 4 November, 2005 in Beijing, avail-able at [http://www.sectsco.org/news_detail.asp?id=649&LanguageID=2].
See: P. Stobdan, “India-China Cooperation in Central Asia: Evolving a Look-North Policy,” Security and Socie-ty, Center for Strategic and Regional Studies, University of Jammu, Vol. 2, No. 1, Summer 2005.
Since the start of 2005, Nazarbaev has spoken repeatedly about his aim to transform Kazakhstan into one of the “50 most competitive, dynamically developing countries in the world” within the next decade (RIA Novosti, Astana, 21 No-vember, 2005). The most recent occasion came on 5 April, 2006 during a speech to the Russian State Duma. Nazarbaev told Russian MPs that average GDP growth over the past five years was roughly 10 percent, adding that the country aims to significantly accelerate growth. If all goes according to plan, Kazakhstan would achieve 350 percent growth by 2015 over the 2000 GDP level (see Nazarbaev full speech).
See: G. Saidazimova, “Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Summit is a Sign of Changing Times,” A EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL 18 March, 2006.
[http://www.kazakhembus.com/LinksandContacts.html].
See: “Sino-Kazakh Strategic Partnership Set Up,” China Daily, 5 July, 2005 (see also: Xinhua, 6 July,2005).
See: P. Stobdan, India & Kazakhstan: Civilizational Explorations, Heritage Publication, New Delhi, 2003.
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