POLITICO-ECONOMIC COMPLEMENTARITY AND COMPATIBILITY BETWEEN GUAM MEMBER STATES
Abstract
After the breakup of the U.S.S.R., some of the newly independent states encountered the problem of aggressive separatism. Bellicose rhetoric soon developed into armed conflicts and a whole range of local wars over territory. In some countries (as in Georgia and Moldova), these wars at least formally were a confrontation between the central government and armed groups of separatists from the same state. In other countries, they were even formally transformed into interstate wars. In particular, Armenia went into action on the side of the Nagorno-Karabakh separatists, but since it was far superior to them both in terms of the number of combatants and in terms of armaments, in actual fact Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh switched roles almost right after the outbreak of hostilities: from now on it was Nagorno-Karabakh that fought on the side of Armenia, which tried to annex (no matter whether formally or informally) a significant part of the territory of Azerbaijan.
“Post-Soviet wars” did not lead to a final resolution of territorial disputes. One of the main reasons for this was that in virtually all cases there was interference by third states which were stronger than the conflicting parties themselves. These states naturally pursued their own interests, mostly by means of assistance to one of the parties involved and sometimes by encouraging, supporting or preserving the conflict in question.
When the first wave of “post-Soviet wars "came to an end and gave way to a search for peaceful ways of conflict resolution, some newly independent states, prompted by the natural course of history, objectively came to realize that joint efforts based on essentially common are, as a rule, more effective than uncoordinated attempts by individual countries to solve their problem single handedly. The global community is more attentive and considerate to joint political actions by several united states than if each of them had advocated the same ideas on its own.
The advisability of joining forces in the international arena in order to resolve or prevent territorial problems was exactly what induced, Azerbaijan Moldova to create GUAM in 1997. It is no accident that ten years later (in October 2007) they once again emphasized in a joint statement of their Vilnius summit that the development and integration of the GUAM countries was still burdened with un-resolved conflicts in the territories of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova, and reaffirmed their commitment to finding peaceful solutions to these conflicts based on sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of internationally recognized state borders.1
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See: Statement of the GUAM Vilnius Summit, avail-able at [http://www.guam.org.ua/181.913.0.0.1.0. phtml].
See, for example: R. Manekin, “SNG-GUAM: spytanie Ukrainoi?” Political Expert Network Kreml.org,available at [http://www.kreml.org/opinions/85607560].
The Charter of the GUAM Group, which was adopted in May 2006 and which formalized its new name, Organi-zation for Democracy and Economic Development—GUAM, declared the following as its main purposes: promoting democratic values, ensuring rule of law and respect for human rights; ensuring sustainable development; strengthening in-ternational and regional security and stability; deepening European integration for the establishment of a common security space, and expansion of cooperation in economic and humanitarian spheres; development of social and economic, trans-port, energy, scientific and technical, and humanitarian potential of the Parties; intensification of political interaction and practical cooperation in the fields of mutual interest (see: Charter of the Organization for Democracy and Economic De-velopment—GUAM, Art 1, available at [http://www.guam.org.ua/267.0.0.1.0.0.phtml]).
See, for example: S. Blank, “Russia’s Real Drive in the South,” Orbis, Summer 1995, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 369-386; J.W.R. Lepingwell, “The Russian Military and Security Policy in the ‘Near Abroad’,” Survival, Autumn 1994,Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 70-92; A. Rondeli, “Russia and Georgia: Relations are Still Tense,” The Caucasus & Globalization,Vol. 1 (1), 2006, p. 68.
Charter of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development—GUAM, Art 1.
See, for example: V. Sergeev, “GUAM oboidiot truboi Rossiiu,” Gazeta RU, 11 October, 2007, available at [http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2007/10/11_a_2232166.shtml].
See, for example: “GUAM—sanitarnyi kordon vokrug Rossii,” BBC Monitoring Service: Summary of Russian Press for 23 May, 2006, available at [http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/russian/press/newsid_5007000/5007156.stm#1].
See, for example: V. Guluzade, “GUAM—alternativa SNG,” REGNUM News Agency, 26 May, 2006, available at [www.regnum.ru/news/646903.html].
See, for example: President Ilham Aliev’s interview with Ekho Moskvy (Echo of Moscow) radio station on 25 De-
cember, 2006 (see full text at: [http://www.mediaforum.az/articles.php?lang=rus&page=02&article_id=
.
See, for example: “Rossiiskie SMI: GUAM—klub obizhennykh na bolshogo brata—Rossiiu,” Press review on the GUAM Kiev Summit, available at [http://www.newsru.com/russia/24may2006/guama.html].
Freedom House is an international nongovernmental organization set up in the United States in 1941. It positions itself as an independent NGO working to develop and expand democracy throughout the world and supporting new de-mocracies, particularly by lobbying for their interests. It is known for its four annual publications: Freedom in the World,Freedom of the Press, Nations in Transit and Countries at the Crossroads.
The methodology and results of the Freedom House study, as well as other cross-country comparisons men-tioned in this article, are analyzed in greater detail in: N. Muzaffarli (Imanov), Reiting Azerbaidzhana, Kavkaz Publish-ers, Baku, 2006.
Compiled from: Nations in Transit 2007: Democratization from Central Europe to Eurasia, available at [http://
ww.freedomhouse.hu//images/fdh_galleries/NIT2007/rating%20and%20democracy%20score%20summary3.pdf],November 2007.
Complied from: Nations in Transit 2007, available at [http://www.freedomhouse.hu//images/fdh_galleries/
IT2007/democracy%20score%20-%20regional3.pdf], November 2007.
See, for example: “Ali Gasanov ne soglasen s otchotom organizatsii Freedom House,” Interview with electronic newspaper Day.az, available at [http://www.day.az/news/politics/47591.html]. The government of Uzbekistan has gone further than the rest in demonstrating its negative attitude to Freedom House: in 2006, its office in the country was closed down by decision of Uzbek law-enforcement agencies (see: “Uzbekistan vydvoriaiet Freedom House,” available at [http://
ww.day.az/news/world/43419.html]).
See: Ponedelnik (weekly of the South Caucasus Institute of Regional Security), No. 22, 2006, p. 7.
See: B.M. Smitienko, V.K. Pospelov, Vneshneekonomicheskaia deiatelnost, 3rd edition, Akademia, Moscow,2007, p. 78.
This view is held, in particular, by L. Grigoriev and M. Salikhov, the authors of one of the most systemic studies dealing with the economy of the GUAM countries. Their book contains many interesting conclusions, but these are for-mulated from the standpoint of the economic development interests primarily of the Russian Federation (see: L.M. Grigo-riev, M.R. Salikhov, GUAM—piat’nadtsat let spustia: Sdvigi v ekonomike Azerbaidzhana, Gruzii, Moldavii i Ukrainy,2001-1006, REGNUM, Moscow, 2007.
For more detail, see: N. Muzaffarli (Imanov), Ekonomicheskie etiudy, Shusha Publishers, Baku, 1999, pp. 30-32, 76-80.
Compiled from the data of the U.N. Statistics Division, available at [http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb/
db_simple_data_extract.asp].
See: Ibidem.
See: Godovye dannye po stranam SNG v tselom, available at [http://www.cisstat.com].
See, for example: O. Fesenko, “Igra v GUAM: chetyre igroka i bol’she?” Independent Analytical Agency Gla-vred, 31 July, 2007, available at [http://www.glavred.info/archive/2007/07/31/172908-1.html].
Compiled from the data of the U.N. Statistics Division (COMTRADE Database) , available at [http://com-trade. un.org/db/dqBasicQuery.aspx]. In this database, the figure for exports from one country to another, as a rule,does not coincide with the figure for the latter’s imports from the former (in 2006, for example, Azerbaijan exports to Geor-gia totaled $285.3 million, while the figure for Georgian imports from Azerbaijan was significantly higher: $318.5 mil-lion). The COMTRADE Database is compiled using information received from national statistical agencies, and their data usually do not coincide with each other. There are several reasons for this: differences in calculation techniques (for example, imports may be calculated on CIF basis, and exports on FOB basis); exclusion by some governments of data on exports or imports of certain goods from their reports; differences in statistical reporting periods, etc.
See: Azerbaijan in Figures 2007, available at [http://www.azstat.org/publications/azfigures/2007/en/018.shtml],November 2007.
Calculated from: U.N. Statistics Division (COMTRADE Database).
See: Azerbaijan in Figures 2007.
Azerbaijan, for its part, annually imports about 1 million tons of grain, which has an important place in the com-modity composition of Ukrainian exports: in 2006, Ukrainian grain exports stood at $1,353.7 million (data of the State Statistical Committee of Ukraine, available at [http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/zd/din_rik/din_r/
ts2006_r.htm]).
See: Yu. Makogon, “GUAM ne sposoben sozdat samostoiatelnyi nefteprovod,” Orthodox News Agency Russkaya liniya, 12 October, 2007, available at [http://www.rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=173701]. In the same inter-view, Yu. Makogon was very skeptical about the GUAM countries’ ability to build an oil pipeline on their own in view of their limited resources. This position does not hold water at all, because such large projects as the construction of oil and gas pipelines are nearly always implemented with the participation of big companies and financial resources from third countries.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development is an organization created in 1964 to promote the in-tegration of developing states into the world economy.
See: UNCTAD World Investment Report-2007: Transnational Corporations, Extractive Industries and Develop-ment, New York and Geneva, 2007, p. 220, available at [http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/wir2007_en.pdf].
In November 2007, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation announced that the country’s international re-serves had exceeded $455 billion, increasing by $151.5 billion in the first nine months of the year (see: “Mezhdunarodnye rezervy RF pobili proshlyi rekord,” Nezavisimaia gazeta, 15 November, 2007, available at [http://news.ng.ru/2007/11/15/
html].
In the absence of a special agency, this function could be performed by the State Investment Company of Az-erbaijan.
There is nothing accidental about the statements by the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaia gazeta that Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliev is to decide GUAM’s future or by Kommersant that without Azerbaijan’s membership GUAM would have turned into a conventional debating society (see: Nezavisimaia gazeta, 24 May, 2006, available at [http://
ww.ng.ru/politics/2006-05-24/3_kartblansh.html]; “GUAM—sanitarnyi kordon vokrug Rossii”). True, Russian analysts usually add that Azerbaijan’s decisions will depend to a significant extent on the results of the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the United States.
See: Narodnoie khoziaistvo SSSR v 1990 godu, Statistical Yearbook, Finansy i statistika, Moscow, 1991, p. 485.
The text of the Agreement is available at: [http://www.guam.org.ua/274.763.0.0.1.0.phtml].
See: Strategia razvitiia otraslevogo sotrudnichestva GUAM, available at [http://www.guam.org.ua/
762.0.0.1.0.phtml].
Compiled from: Doing Business 2008, available at [http://www.doingbusiness.org].
The World Bank includes all GUAM countries in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region (a total of 28 countries).
Compiled from: 2007 Index of Economic Freedom, available at [http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index/index.cfm].
See: The Global Competitiveness Report 2007-2008, available at [http://www.gcr.weforum.org].
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