TRANSNISTRIAN CONFLICT: FROZEN, YET SOLVABLE
Abstract
After the Soviet Union’s break-up, a series of frozen conflicts emerged in the newly established independent states, specifically in the Republic of Moldova (Transnistria), Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh), Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), Russia (Chechnia), etc. Although the Transnistrian conflict lacks any ethnical and religious divergences, the conflict still remains intractable (frozen) due to the lack of political will from leaders of the Transnistrian region to constructively negotiate a viable and durable solution to the conflict. Political elites from the Transnistrian region hope that an eventual recognition of Kosovo’s independence will grant them additional leverages in negotiating a similar status with the Republic of Moldova. Currently, the world media and international community carefully analyze the results of presidential elections in Serbia and negotiations around the Kosovo problem. Definitely, the Kosovo status will have a major impact on the negotiation process of the Transnistrian conflict. The Transnistrian administration and several Russian politicians attempt to draw some parallelisms between Kosovo and Transnistria using artificial and naive arguments; however, the international community explicitly expressed their full support for a settlement formula that preserves Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Kosovo cannot represent a precedent for the Transnistrian conflict because the problem with the Transnistrian region is an artificial one. Nevertheless, the Transnistrian conflict can become a successful precedent of the European Union (EU) and Russia joint cooperation in conflict resolution in the former Soviet Union republics. The EU and Russia—together with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Ukraine and the United States (U.S.)—can successfully assist Moldova and Transnistria in finding a peaceful and workable solution to the conflict. This report will provide a short historical background of the conflict, analyze the nature of the Transnistrian regime, and evaluate possible future steps in the settlement process.
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References
The present paper represents the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the position of the institution.
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