THE GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT,ENERGY PROJECTS, AND SECURITY OF THE BLACK SEA-CASPIAN REGION
Abstract
The Russian-Georgian conflict of August2008 should be regarded as part of the general geopolitical and geoenergy situation in the Caspian-Black Sea region, its causes and consequences being extremely important for many actors. Rooted in the past, it is closely connected with what was going elsewhere, Kosovo’s independence proclaimed in February 2008 in particular.
I have written this article to offer my analysis of the 2008 events, reveal their impact on the energy situation and security in the Black Sea-Caspian region, and provide recommendations on how to diminish their negative impact on Ukraine.
I intend to discuss the causes that led to the crisis and its consequences. I shall pay special attention to the positions of third sides and forecast possible developments The subject remains topical because the events of August 2008 directly affected the security of the Black Sea countries, their energy cooperation, and their relations with the European Union.
What happened in the summer of 2008 has become the subject of an academic discussion about the frozen conflicts in the Black Sea region which involves academics from post-Soviet states, Europe, and America.
Some of them are more interested in the causes and consequences; others in the roles of the third players in the region; while still others concentrate on individual aspects (ethnic, historical, military, political, etc.).
This subject remains inadequately studied, its discussion being limited to scattered comments and media reports even though the developments in any of the GUAM countries are directly related to Ukraine’s security.1
The Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, the International Crisis Group, the Center for Civil Society Studies, the South Caucasian Institute of Regional Security,2 and others have already produced well-founded analyses of their own.
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References
See: G.M. Perepelitsia, Genezis konfliktiv na postkomunistichnomu prostori Evropi, Stilos—PP Foliant,Kiev, 2003 (in Ukrainian); H.A. Karasar, “Saakashvili Pulled the Trigger: Turkey between Russia and Georgia,”SETA Policy Brief, No. 20, 2008; Z. Süslü, “Georgia at a Glance; Abkhazian and South Ossetian Conflict,” IBSU In-ternational Refereed Multi-disciplinary Scientific Journal,No. 1, 2006; Y. Yakis, “The Black Sea and the Georgian Crisis,” International Center for the Black Sea Studies, Pol-icy Brief, No. 10, December 2008.
See: After August 2008: Consequences of the Rus-sian-Georgian War, The Caucasus Institute for Peace, De-mocracy and Development, September 2008; V. Kulik,
Konfliktogennyi potentsial Yuzhnogo Kavkaza kak sistem-nyi vyzov natsionalnoi bezopasnosti Ukrainy,” Ukraina v mire. Ekspress-ekspertiza, No. 5 (63), 2008; Yuzhnokavka-zskii institut regionalnoi bezopasnosti, available at [http://
ww.scirs.org/].
See: S. Cornell, “Pipeline Power. The War in Geor-gia and the Future of the Caucasian Energy Corridor,” Geor-getown Journal on International Affairs, Winter/Spring 2009; N. Kassenova, “Kazakhstan and the South Caucasus Corridor in the Wake of the Georgia-Russia War,” EU-Cen-tral Asia Monitoring, No. 3, January 2009, available at [http://www.eucentralasia.eu]; T. Marketos, “Eastern Cas-pian Sea Energy Geopolitics: A Litmus Test for the U.S.-Russia-China Struggle for the Geostrategic Control of Eur-asia Caucasian,” Review of International Affairs, Vol. 3 (1),Winter 2009.
See: “Posol Rossii pri ES ne vidit istochnikov gaza dlia ‘Nabucco,’” available at [http://www.unian.net/rus/
ews/news-284159.html], 13 November, 2008.
See: S. Cornell, op. cit.
See: “Gazovyi konflikt—eto prodolzhenie rossi-isko-gruzinskoi voiny,” available at [http://www.unian.net/
us/news/news-295234.html], 15 January, 2009.
See: “SShA nachali rozygrysh ukrainskoi karty,”available at [http://vlasti.net/news/33443], 8 January, 2009.
See: After August 2008: Consequences of the Russian-Georgian War.
[http://www.kremlin.ru/text/docs/2008/07/204108.shtml], 12 July, 2008.
See: “Russia and Uzbekistan Agreed that Gas Prices Would Be on the European Level,” RIA Novosti, 2 Septem-ber, 2008.
See: IA [http://www.unian.net/ukr/news/news-267261.html], 14 August, 2008.
See: “Nikolai Zlobin: Rossii ne nuzhno mezhdunarodnoe priznanie Abkhazii,” Ekho Moskvy, available at [http://
ww.echo.msk.ru/blog/nzlobin/547385-echo/], 17 October, 2008.
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