MILITARY STANDOFF BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN: THE PARTIES’ MILITARY POTENTIALS AND HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS OF CONFLICT DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Keywords:
Iran, military power, hybrid war, military situation, Iran-U.S. confrontation, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).Abstract
The paper analyzes the physical and geographical conditions of the Iranian theater of operations, the combat capabilities of the Iranian armed forces and Iran’s military doctrine. It notes the growing combat potential of the Iranian Army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Law Enforcement Force.
The article provides an analysis of combat capabilities and the forecast of the
likely scenarios of U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran. It assesses the parties’ probable losses in the military operation. It emphasizes the fact that, despite the overwhelming American military power, Iran’s armed forces can repel aggression using the “hybrid war” assets and methods and an asymmetric response to the enemy. There are also shortcomings in the work of the American expert community in analyzing and forecasting the development of the military and political situation around Iran, which can lead to grave consequences for the United States.
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See: T.A. Ganiev, S.M. Zadonsky, V.V. Karyakin, Voennaia moshch Islamskoy Respubliki Iran: voennaia politika i vooruzhennye sily strany, Vol. 1, Institute of Oriental Studies, Moscow, 2019, pp. 24-33.
See: Ibid., pp. 34-53.
See: Ibid., pp. 303-328.
See: Ibid., pp. 434-513.
See: D. Grafov, “V Tel-Avive prizyvaiut udarit po Iranu,” available at [http://www.odnako.org/blogs/v-tel-avive- prizivayut-udarit-po-iranu], 16 December, 2019.
In mid-2019, there were 16 F-351 planes in the Israeli Air Force. Plans are in place to form two full squadrons by 2024, 25 planes in each.
See: T.A. Ganiev, S.M. Zadonsky, V.V. Karyakin, op. cit., Vol. 2, pp. 215-243.
In March 2018, according to a Kuwaiti publication Al-Jarida, two Israeli Air Force F-35 aircraft allegedly conducted an intelligence operation over Iran, undetected by Iranian and several other countries, including Russia. According to the source, the fighters flew over the Syrian and Iraqi airspace, and then crossed the Iranian border, completing reconnaissance missions in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, Isfahan and Shiraz, flying at high altitude above nuclear facilities.
A number of media outlets and expert assessments have noted that Iran can be attacked from the territory of Azerbaijan in the event of a military solution to the Iranian problem. At the same time, the United States may try to use Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijani factor as the so-called new version of the Afghan “Northern Alliance,” this time in northern Iran. More- over, if major border alterations occur and new states are created in the region (Kurdistan, etc.), vast parts of Iranian Azerbaijan may be promised to Azerbaijan. However, this raises a number of questions. First of all, Iranian Azerbaijan is much larger than the Republic of Azerbaijan. Secondly, many Iranians live there alongside ethnic Azerbaijanis. Both of these factors mean that southerners will dominate in the socio-political setting in this hypothetical “United Azerbaijan.” They are both socially and psychologically different from northern Azerbaijanis, which, in turn, may mean serious problems for the present-day Azerbaijan. And if Iran is not defeated, then the regional U.S. ally may face numerous problems. However, the official Baku is trying to develop an adequate policy in the complicated military and political context around Iran, so as not to find themselves in a situation with unpredictable consequences.
See: V. Vasiliev, “Smozhet li Iran asimmetrichno otvetit SShA na ubiystvo Suleymani?” 4 January, 2020, available at [https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2823069.html/], 16 December, 2019.
See: S.M. Zadonsky, “Iran gotovitsia k voyne s Izrailem i SshA,” Information-News System Raketnaia Tekhnika, available at [http://rbase.new-factoria.ru/news/iran-gotovitsya-k-vojne-s-izrailem-i-ssha/], 22 December, 2019.
See: K. Sivkov, “Ot udara po Iranu SShA uzhe ne opraviatsia. Za boevymi poteriami posleduiut ekonomicheskiy krizis i sotsialnyi vzryv,” Voenno-promyshlennyi kurier, No. 22 (785), 11 June, 2019, available at [https://vpk-news.ru/articles/50767], 12 October, 2019.
See: “Rossiyskimi S-300 Iran prikroet zavody po proizvodstvu raket,” Vzgliad. Delovaia gazeta, available at [https:// vz.ru/world/2016/5/10/809779.html], 12 October, 2019.
See: I. Yunusov, “Velikiy Tramp v posudnoy lavke,” available at [http://actualcomment.ru/velikiy-tramp-v-posud- noy-lavke-2001081255.html?utm_source=politobzor.net], 22 January, 2019.
See: V. Karyakin, “Geopolitical Regionalistics: The Greater Middle East as the ‘Heartland’ of the 21st-Century World-System,” Central Asia and the Caucasus, Vol. 23, Issue 1, 2020.
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