ARMENIA: YEAR OF ELECTIONS
Abstract
This article examines the national and local elections held in Armenia in 2012-2013, particularly focusing on the opportunities they created for political competition, the validity of the election results, their consequences, and more. The author begins by analyzing the national elections in Armenia during the 1990s and 2000s. Additionally, he highlights viewpoints that remain relevant today, which can enhance our understanding of current election processes. Whenever possible, the author provides a detailed review of the available statistics to characterize the election process and the development of the domestic political situation in Armenia several years after the 2008 presidential election.
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References
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According to a report by Epress.am information agency, “never before has the election of a local mayor raised such a ruckus in Armenia” (“From Associate of Serzh Sargsian to Virulent Opponent,” Epress.am, 12 February, 2012, available in Russian at [http://www.epress.am/ru/2012/02/12/Небывалый-ажиотаж-в-50-км-от-Еревана-От-с.html]).
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It should be noted that restricting the freedom to gather and of the media often becomes the catalyst of mass protest demonstrations. In 2001, pressure on the independent Rustavi-2 television company led to mass protest demonstrations in Georgia. In January 2011, demonstrations in Egypt correlated directly with disconnection of the Internet (see: N. Hassanpour,Media Disruption Exacerbates Revolutionary Unrest: Evidence from Mubarak’s Natural Experiment, Yale University, 2011,p. 33).
See: “Аharon Adibekian: Armenian Society has a Shorter Memory than a Chicken, and That is Good,” Armtoday.
nfo, 22 February, 2012, available in Russian at [http://armtoday.info/default.asp?Lang=_Ru&NewsID=61056]. For the re-sults, see: [http://www.tert.am/am/news/2012/03/26/aharon-adibekian/].
See: “Poll: A Snapshot ahead of Armenia’s Presidential Elections. Main Findings,” European Friends of Armenia,TNS Opinion, IPSC, 22 March, 2012, p. 22, available at [http://www.eufoa.org/uploads/OpinionPoll_EN.pdf].
See: Ահարոն Ադիբեկյանը չի հավատʡմ “Հայաստանի եվրոպացի բարեկաﬓեր”—ի սոցհարցմանը
Aharon Adibekian Does Not Trust the European Friends of Armenia Poll), Tert.am, 26 March, 2012.
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See: “Sociopolitical Situation in Armenia on the Eve of the Parliamentary Elections,” Press-Issue, No. 2005,VCIOM, 20 April, 2012, available in Russian at [http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=268&uid=112722].
See: “Poll: Last Assessment of Pre-Electoral Armenia,” European Friends of Armenia, TNS Opinion, IPSC, 28 April,2012, p. 25, available at [http://www.eufoa.org/uploads/Poll_28.04.2012_EN.pdf].
See: “‘Gallup International Association’-ը հրապարակեց, 17.04-23.04 ժամանակահատվածʡմ անցկացված
ոցիոլոգիական հարցʡﬓերի արդյʡնքները (Results of Gallup International Association Poll carried out on 17.04-23.04),” Novosti TV “Armenia,” 27 April, 2012, available at [http://news.armeniatv.com/post/id/88977/].
See: “New Coalition Memorandum Not Signed: The RPA and PAP will Participate in the Elections on Separate Lists,” 7or.am, 13 February, 2012, available in Russian at [http://www.7or.am/ru/news/view/30624/].
See: N. Iskandarian, T. Sargsian, H. Mikaelian, “Predvybornye obeshchaniia partii,” Institute of the Caucasus, May 2012, available at [http://www.c-i.am/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/brief-prefinal.pdf].
According to the Caucasus Barometer poll carried out by CRRC in Armenia in October-November 2011, 73% of the polled thought that the government should be more like a parent, while 18% described it as a hired worker.
The A1+ Television Company was deprived of its license in 2002 and has since been trying to return to the air, after winning a case in the European Court, but in 2010, it was again refused renewal of its license. Since 2011, it has been broadcasting online, and since September 2012, it has been airing a television program on the Armnews TV channel.
See: “Poll: A Snapshot of Pre-Electoral Armenia,” p. 8.
See: “Report on Monitoring of Armenian Broadcast Media Coverage of 6 May, 2012 Elections to RA National As-sembly,” Erevan Press Club, May 2012, p. 18, available at [http://ypc.am/upload/YPC%20Monitoring_Second%20Stage_
pril%208-%20May%204,%202012_eng.pdf].
Poll results available at [http://www.tvradio.am/uploads/0814.pdf], p. 9 (in Armenian).
See: N. Grigorian, “PPA i na etikh vyborakh potratitsia bolshe vsekh,” Aravot, 4 April, 2012, available at [http://
u.aravot.am/2012/04/04/55675/].
See: OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission, Final Report, OSCE, 26 June, 2012, pp. 21-22, available at [http://
ww.osce.org/odihr/91643].
See: “May 6 Elections Most Democratic and Transparent Vote Ever Held in Armenia,” News.am, 22 October, 2012,available at [http://news.am/eng/news/125727.html].
According to the system of online registration of violations iDitord.org. [https://iditord.org/2012-parliamentary-elections/] (in Armenian).
See: “Levon Ter-Petrosian Complained to the French Ambassador that There were 700,000 Surplus Voters on the Voters’ Lists,” Panarmenian.net, 4 April, 2012, available in Russian at [http://www.panarmenian.net/rus/news/101744].
See: “Telephone Survey on 2012 Parliamentary Elections in Armenia,” Transparency—Armenia, pp. 4-5, available at [http://transparency.am/dbdata/Survey2012-eng.pdf].
See: “Armenian Opposition Bloc Says Elections were Rigged,” 8 May, 2012, available at [http://news.am/eng/
ews/104710.html].
See: “Armenian Parliament Approves Government’s Action Program,” Tert. Am, 21 June, 2012, available at [http://
ww.tert.am/en/news/2012/06/21/karavarutian-tsragir/].
See: “Parliamentary Elections in Armenia in 2012: Are Their Representatives being Replaced by Oligarchs?” IA Regnum, 30 November, 2011, available in Russian at [http://www.regnum.ru/news/1472984.html].
See: “Armenian President Confirms Candidate for Gumri Mayor,” Tert.am, 4 September, 2012, available at [http://
ert.am/en/news/2012/09/04/serzh-sargsyan-interview/].
Turnout indices for communities are available at [http://res.elections.am/images/doc/masnak09.09.12.pdf ] (for the elections held on 9 September, in Armenian); [http://res.elections.am/images/doc/masnak23.09.12.pdf] (for the elections held on 23 September, in Armenian)
See: A. Harutyunian, “Armenian Opposition Opts Out of Local Polls,” IWPR, CRS Issue 657, 7 September, 2012,available at [http://iwpr.net/report-news/armenian-opposition-opts-out-local-polls]; I. Hovhannisian, “The ANC and Heritage are Not Being Active at the Local Elections,” Armenian edition of Radio Freedom,10 August, 2012, available in Russian at [http://rus.azatutyun.am/content/article/24672832.html].
Collated election results are available at [http://res.elections.am/images/doc/statistics09.09.12m.pdf ] (elections held on 9 September, in Armenian); [http://res.elections.am/images/doc/statistics23.09.12m.pdf] (elections held on 23 September,in Armenian) (see also: “Կարեւորը մասնակցʡթյʡնն է” (The Main Thing is Participation), Aikakan Zhamanak, No. 163 (3087), 25 September, 2012, available at [http://www.armtimes.com/36425]).
See: “Gagik Tsarukian—armiansky Ivanishvili?” Armenia Today, 3 October, 2012, available at [http://armtoday.info/
efault.asp?Lang=_Ru&NewsID=74707].
See: “Dvumia osnovnymi kandidatami prezidentskikh vyborov iavliaiutsia Serzh Sargsian i Gagik Tsarukian: sotsiolog,”Pervy armiansky informatsionny, 9 October, 2012, available at [http://www.1in.am/rus/armenia_apolitics_22634.html].
See: “Gallup International Association: Who Would Armenian Citizens Choose if the Election was Held Next Sunday?” Panarmenian.net, 2 November, 2012, available in Russian at [http://www.panarmenian.net/rus/news/130567].
See: “Iskandarian: “Delo Oskaniana” imeet politicheskiy podtekst,” Aysor.am, 4 October, 2012, available at [http://
ww.aysor.am/ru/news/2012/10/04/iskandarian/]; N. Melkumyan, “Armenian Opposition Leader Says He’s Being Framed,”IWPR, CRS Issue 662, 19 October, 2012, available at [http://iwpr.net/report-news/armenian-opposition-leader-says-hes-being-framed].
See: “Rukivoditel fraktsii RPA: Armianskiy Ivanishvili ne Gagik Tsarukian, a Vardan Oskanian,” Panorama.am, 5 October, 2012, available at [http://www.panorama.am/ru/politics/2012/10/05/sahakian/].
See: H. Mikaelian, “Vnutrenniaia politika Armenii v sentiabre-oktiabre 2012,” Analitichesky biulleten—Armenia,RAS Institute of Europe, available at [http://ieras.ru/pub/bulleten/Am3.pdf].
See: “Important for Reinforcement of Armenian-EU Relations, Barroso Says,” Tert.am, 1 December, 2012, available at [http://www.tert.am/en/news/2012/12/01/baroso-press-conferance/].
During the second term of Robert Kocharian’s presidency (2003-2007), Armenian GDP increased by 85%, while during Serzh Sargsian’s first term (2008-2012), it grew by only 3%. Dynamics of the Armenian GDP are available on the website of the National Statistics Service at [http://armstat.am/ru/?nid=126&id=01001].
See: “Robert Kocharian Won’t Take Part in Presidential Elections,” Slaq.am, 13 December, 2012, available in Russian at [http://www.slaq.am/eng/news/107184/].
See: “A Political Scientist Calls the Upcoming Presidential Election in Armenia ‘Technical,’” Armenpress.am, 15 Janu-ary, 2012, available in Russian at [http://armenpress.am/rus/news/705036].
R. Stepanian, “Serzh Sargsian kritikuet Raffi Hovannisiana,” Armenian service of Radio Freedom, 12 February, 2013,available at [http://rus.azatutyun.am/content/article/24899360.html].
According to a report by the Erevan press club on coverage of the election campaigns, Serzh Sargsian took third place in terms of air time allotted to the candidates for election agitation between 21 January and 16 February, yielding to Raffi
ovannisian and Paruir Airikian (see: “Report on Monitoring of Armenian Broadcast Media Coverage of Ra Presidential Elections in 2013,” YPC, p. 16, available at [http://ypc.am/upload/YPC%20Monitoring_RA%20Presidential%20Elections%20 2013_eng.pdf]).
Seventy-one percent of the polled called Hovannisian’s campaign the most convincing, while 64% opted for Sargsian’s campaign (see: “Poll: Armenia on the Eve of Presidential Elections,” European Friends of Armenia, TNS Opinion,IPSC, 9 February, 2012, p. 18, available at [http://www.eufoa.org/uploads/POLL20130209EN.pdf]).
At the beginning of February, 49% of PAP’s voters were ready to give their vote to Hovhannisian and 42% to Sargsian (see: “Poll: Armenia on the Eve of Presidential Elections,” p. 27).
See: A. Barsegian, “Ըստ Ադիբեկյանի՝ ընտրողների 72 տոկոսը կքվեարկի Սերժ Սարգսյանի օգտին” (Ac-cording to Adibekian, 72% will Vote for Serzh Sargsian), Armenian public radio, 9 January, 2013 [http://www.armradio.am/
y/2013/01/09/ըստ-ադիբեկյանի՝-ընտրողների-72-տոկոսը-կք/]).
See: “Poll: A Snapshot ahead of Armenia’s Presidential Elections. Main Findings,” p. 18.
See: “Gallup: President Sargsian ahead in Election Race,” News.am, 29 January, 2013, available at [http://news.am/
ng/news/137787.html].
See: “Sociologists Predict that Sargsian will Gather from 68.8% to 72% of the Votes at the Presidential Election,”AMI “Novosti Armenia,” 25 January, 2013, available in Russian at [http://www.newsarmenia.ru/politics/20130125/42791202.
tml].
See: “Presidential Election in Armenia: Two Weeks before the Voting,” VCIOM, press issue, No. 2223, 5 February,2013, available in Russian at [http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=459&uid=113600].
See: “Gallup Poll: Ghukasian’s Anti-Rating is Highest,” Aysor.am, 7 February, 2013, available in Russian at [http://
ww.aysor.am/en/news/2013/02/07/gallup/].
See: “Poll: Armenia on the Eve of Presidential Elections,” p. 23.
See: “Gallup: By Refusing to Nominate a Candidate for the Election, the Prosperous Armenia Party Lost the Support of Some of the Electorate,” Panorama.am, 9 February, 2013, available in Russian at [http://www.panorama.am/ru/
olitics/2013/02/09/gallup2/].
See: M. Grigorian, “Armenia: stanut li ‘tekhnicheskimi’ prezidentskie vybory,” BBC, 30 January, 2013, available at [http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2013/01/130129_armenian_elections.shtml].
See: “A Third Person, a Relative of Eposologist Vardan Serdakian, has been Arrested in the Case of Attempted Murder of Airikian,” 1in.am, 12 February, 2013, available in Russian at [http://www.1in.am/rus/armenia_apolitics_27174.
tml].
See: “Artak Kirakosian: The Election of the Armenian President was Held in a Much More Ambient Atmosphere,”Panorama.am, 21 February, 2013, available in Russian at [http://www.panorama.am/ru/society/2013/02/21/a-kirakosian/].
See: “Armenian Election Generally Well-Administered with Fundamental Freedoms Respected, but Some Key Concerns Remain, International Election Observers say,” OSCE/ODIHR, 18 February, 2013, available at [http://osce.org/
dihr/elections/99676].
Author’s calculation based on the data published by the Central Election Commission.
See: Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions, OSCE/ODIHR, 19 February, 2013, p. 11, available at [http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/99675].
See: Election Report, ICES, 19 February, 2013, available in Russian at [http://www.elections-ices.org/files/
ublications/16521.pdf].
See: I. Azar, “Poka, revoliutsia,” Lenta.ru, 25 February, 2013, available at [http://lenta.ru/articles/2013/02/25/
rmenia/].
See: “Policy Forum Armenia Publishes the Results of Its Preliminary Analysis on 18 February, 2013 Presidential Election in Armenia,” 22 February, 2013, available at [http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/2013%20Election%20 Statement-3.pdf]; “‘Wizard’ in Armenian is ‘kahard,’” available in Russian at [http://romanik.livejournal.com/718556.html];
Armenian Election in the Mirror of Official Statistics,” available in Russian at [http://abuzin.livejournal.com/114160.html].
See: “Poll: Armenia on the Eve of Presidential Elections,” p. 21.
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