THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE CIS REGION: BETWEEN CRISES?
Abstract
This article examines the specific manifestations of crisis phenomena in the region of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) that are most pronounced in countries making progress in the creation of a market economy. The author emphasizes the imitative nature of economic reforms in the post-Soviet space. Based on an analysis of international assessments of the current economic situation in these states, he identifies the main factors that prevent their transition from extensive to intensive economic activity.
He stresses the objective nature of the lack of internal prerequisites for a transition to large-scale modernization of the economy and innovative economic development. His conclusion is that the CIS countries (or "newly independent states" in foreign terminology) may face high-level threats to national security with the onset of the next stage of the recession in the absence of reliable prerequisites for economic stabilization in these countries.
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An initial and more complete analysis of the peculiarities of the crisis in the CIS region was given in my article “The CIS Countries: Some Peculiarities of Economic Development” in the journal Central Asia and the Caucasus, Vol. 15, Issue 2,2012. With inevitable duplication of a number of propositions and conclusions, the present article examines the new phenomena and processes in the economy of these countries that have appeared in the post-crisis period.
See: Osnovnye sotsialno-ekonomicheskie pokazateli gosudarstv-uchastnikov SNG za 1992 (1994)-2010 gody,Economic Cooperation Department of the CIS Executive Committee, Minsk, 2011, p. 3.
See: Republic of Armenia: Third Review under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion—Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion, IMF, Wash. D.C., 2003, p. 13.
As a parallel example of the use of administrative-command instruments to counter the crisis, one could also mention Belarus. Given its extremely high dependence on the situation in the Russian economy, one might have expected a plunge in the GDP of that country with the onset of the recession, but this not happen. Growth rates in the Belarusian economy did indeed fall to 0.2% in 2009 compared to 9-10% in previous years. But “manual” control of the Belarusian economy on the part of President Alexander Lukashenko’s administration made it possible to avoid a sharp drop in economic growth in the country.
See: The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013, World Economic Forum, Geneva, 2013, p. 216.
The special role of the banking system in the impact of the crisis on the economy of Kazakhstan is examined in a report by researchers from the Karaganda Economic University of KazPotrebSoyuz Zh.A. Gusmanova and K.A. Yermakova Problemy vliania global’nogo krizisa na deiatelnost kommercheskikh bankov v Respublike Kazakhstan at a conference entitled “Integration Processes in the International Economy and Education,” Siberian Academy of Finance and Banking, Novosibirsk,2009, pp. 80-85.
See: P.G. Desai, “Russia’s Financial Crisis: Economic Setbacks and Policy Responses,” Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 63, Issue 2, 2010, p. 2.
See: Mirovoi ekonomicheski krizis i Rossia: prichiny, posledstvia, puti preodolenia, Collective Report, St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, 2009, p. 20.
See: V.G. Papava, “The Problem of Zombification of the Postcommunist Necroeconomy,” Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 53, Issue 4, 2010, pp. 35-51.
Novye nezavisimye gosudarstva: sravnitelnye itogi sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitia, ed. by L.B. Vardomskiy,Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 2012, pp. 55-56.
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan had not provided official information on their economic development indicators.
See: World Economic Outlook Database (April 2011 and April 2013), IMF, Wash. D.C., 2011 and 2013, available at [http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_cap].
Calculated from the same sources.
See: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013, IMF, Wash., D.C., 2013, available at [http://www.en.wikipedia.
rg/wiki/list_of_countries_by_ GDP_(PPP)_per_cap].
See: Country Rankings: World & Global Economy Rankings on Economic Freedom, 2012, The Heritage Foundation,New York, 2013, pp. 1-5, available at [http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking].
Calculated from the same source.
See: A. Yakovlev, Y. Simachev, Y. Danilov, “The Russian Corporation: Patterns of Behavior during the Crisis,”Post-Communist Economies, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2010, p. 131.
As noted above, this group of countries with the least business freedom also includes Ukraine, but the situation with general administrative intervention in economic processes in this country differs significantly from that in the above three states. Given the unstable political position of the changing clans and the relative balance of power between them, patron-client relationships in Ukraine are not nationwide but are confined within the limits of several groups, which strengthen or weaken with a change of leadership in the country. Because of this, direct administrative intervention is applied only to “one’s own”business entities, with attempts to influence such entities from other political and economic clans in the country at least indirectly.
G. Lych, “Zamedlenie rynochnogo reformirovania ekonomiki Belarusi: vo blago ili vo vred?” Obshchestvo i ekonomika, No. 4, 2013, p. 20.
See: The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013, p. 13.
See: Ibidem.
See: Udelnyi ves stran Sodruzhestva i drugikh stran mira v obshchem obiome eksporta otdel’nykh stran Sodruzhestva.
delnyi ves stran SNG i drugikh stran mira v obshchem obiome importa otdel’nykh stran Sodruzhestva, Materials of the Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS, Minsk, 2013, available at [http://www.cisstat.com/rus/macro/mac2_an.htm].
See: Sotsialno-ekonomicheskoie razvitie postsovetskikh stran: itogi dvadtsatiletia, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 2012, p. 31.
See: V. Karbovich, Eto sladkoe slovo “modernizatsia”, available at [http://charter97org/ru/news/2013/2/9/6510].
See: J. Kornai, “Innovation and Dynamism. Interaction between Systems and Technical Progress,” Economics of Transition, Vol. 18 (4), 2010, pp. 629-670.
G. Satarov, “Prolegomeny k poslednei modernizatsii Rossii,” Voprosy ekonomiki, No. 5, 2011, p. 6; Ye. Yasin,
Institutsionalnye ogranichenia modernizatsii, ili prizhiviotsa li demokratia v Rossii,” Voprosy ekonomiki, No. 11, 2011, pp. 10-11.
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