EASTERN PARTNERSHIP FROM PRAGUE TO VILNIUS. WHAT WENT WRONG?
Abstract
On 28-29 November 2013, Vilnius hosted the 3rd Eastern Partnership Summit, at which several former Soviet republics were expected to ascend to a higher institutional level in their relations with the European Union. Belarus and Azerbaijan preferred to step aside, while two other members (Armenia and Ukraine) left the program in the fall of 2013 when the talks were over. Georgia and Moldova initialed but did not sign the Association Agreement with the EU. This means that four-and-a-half years of this highly ambitious program produced very modest results, primarily due to the fact that Ukraine, the region’s biggest player, excused itself from signing. This did not put a full stop to the relations between the Eastern Partnership (EP) members and the EU; however, the Vilnius Summit marked an intermediate finish of sorts. The old strategy ran into a dead end, leaving Brussels without a new strategy for its relations with its Eastern neighbors. To move forward, the EU should try to find out what went wrong.
We should analyze what has happened and why. Here I have tried to comprehend how the relations between the EU and Soviet successor states developed under the project to provide (probably delayed) answers to the following questions:
1. Did the summit fail because Russia was very skeptical about the results of European integration for its neighbors?
2. Why did this problem come to the fore in mid-2013 rather than in 2008 when it all started?
3. Why did the Russian factor (described as an imminent threat to the European programs on the post-Soviet space) remain neglected?
To correctly understand the motivation of what has been done and to avoid unsubstantiated assessments, we need to look at what happened in Vilnius from the perspective of Brussels, Moscow, and the post-Soviet capitals involved. I will rely on the chronology of the EP project divided into three key periods:
- From May 2008 when the program was announced to May 2009 when it started;
- Repeated actualization of the program, which stretched from the summer of 2010 to the summer of 2011;
- Speeding up the talks in preparation for the Vilnius Summit and the zero-sum game between Russia and the EU (2013).
Downloads
References
The article was written before 27 June 2014, the date Georgia signed the Association Agreement with the EU.
Before 1995, the EU consisted of 12 countries; by the end of 2013, there were 28 members.
Today, 47 countries belong to the Council of Europe; Belarus is the only European country (if we do not count the European microstates) to be left outside it.
Regulatory documents go into the minutest details regarding agricultural production, including the angle at which cucumbers should grow on their stems and the size of apples; there are obligatory quotas on the products sold by any specific country (overproduction is condemned). This makes the European economy short of planned.
See: D. Trenin, “Rossia i Novaya Vostochnaya Evropa,” Polit.ru, 22 April 2010, available at [http://polit.ru/article/2010/04/22/trenin/].
See: K. Burnetko, “Novaya Vostochnaya Evropa,” Novaya Polsha, No. 7-8, 2010, available at [http://www.novpol.u/index.php?id=1354].
The text of an agreement with Ukraine, Partnership and Co-operation Agreement between the European Communities and Their Member States, and Ukraine, is available at [http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2003/october/tradoc_111612.pdf].
Compare the text of the agreement with Armenia: The European Union and the Republic of Armenia. Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, available at [http://www.mineconomy.am/uploades/PCA_EU-Armenia.pdf].
See: “Poland, Sweden Defend ‘Eastern Initiative’,” Euractiv.com-EU News & Policy Debates, 26 May 2008, available at [http://www.euractiv.com/central-europe/poland-sweden-defend-eastern-ini-news-219864].
See: N. Popescu, “More for More in the Neighborhood,” EUObserver, 22 March 2011, available at [http://blogs.uobserver.com/popescu/2011/04/04/more-for-more-in-the-neighbourhood/].
See: R. Goldirova, “‘Eastern Partnership’ Could Lead to Enlargement, Poland Says,” EUObserver, 27 May 2008, available at [http://euobserver.com/foreign/26211].
See: Y. Nasshoven, “TEPSA Brief: Eastern Partnership,” Trans European Policy Studies Association, July 2008, available at [http://www.tepsa.eu/download/publications/Eastern%20Partnership.pdf].
See: Joint Declaration of the Prague Eastern Partnership Summit, Brussels, 7 May 2009, available at [http://www.onsilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/er/107589.pdf].
A. Rettman, “EU Summit Text Loaded with Eastern Tension,” EUObserver, 7 May 2009, available at [http://uobserver.com/foreign/28081].
In Estonia, for example, unemployment increased from 5.5% in 2008 to 16.9% in 2010; in Ireland, it rose from 6.4% to 13.9% in the same period; and in Spain from 11.3% to 20.1%. This went on everywhere across the EU, Germany being the only exception (see: Eurostat, Unemployment Rate by Sex and Age Groups—Annual Average, %).
See: A. Rettman, “Absent Leaders Deflate EU’s ‘Eastern’ Summit,” EUObserver, 7 May 2009, available at [http://uobserver.com/foreign/28088].
See: Y. Nasshoven, op. cit.
See: “Glava MID Italii opasaetsia antirossiyskoy napravlennosti programmy ES ‘Vostochnoe partnerstvo’,” 16 March 2009, available at [http://www.regnum.ru/news/1137757.html].
S. Ortola, “Mikheil Saakachvili: ‘Ma visite enterre les efforts de la Russie pour isoler’,” 8 June 2010, available at [http://www.20minutes.fr/monde/russie/576147-mikheil-saakachvili-ma-visite-enterre-efforts-russie-isoler-pays].
See: “‘Hundreds of Protesters Arrested’ in Belarus,” BBC, 20 December 2010, available at [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12037486].
See: “Prezidentskie vybory v Respublike Belarus,” 22 February 2011, Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), available at [http://www.osce.org/ru/odihr/76092].
See: “Yanukovich: Evrointegratsia—glavny prioritet Ukrainy,” Podrobnosti, 1 March 2010, available at [http://odrobnosti.ua/power/2010/03/01/669091.html].
See: Joint Press Statement, available at [https://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/r/117912.pdf]; EU-Ukraine Summit Factsheet, available at [https://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/er/117751.pdf].
See: European Union and Ukrainian Negotiators Initial Association Agreement, including Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, European Commission — MEMO/12/238, 30 March 2012, available at [http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-12-238_en.htm?locale=en].
After the parliamentary elections of October 2012 in Georgia, many foreign observers doubted the country’s further foreign policy orientation. The new people in power confirmed that it would remain the same (see: Address of the Prime Minister of Georgia H.E. Bidzina Ivanishvili to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, available at [http://www.government.gov.ge/index.php?lang_id=ENG&sec_id=270&info_id=36672]).
Average by “linkage,” “approximation,” and “management.”
See: “Putin predlozhil Ukraine vstupit v Tamozhenny soiuz,” RIA-Novosti, 5 March 2010, available at [http://ria.ru/politics/20100305/212412980.html].
See: F. Lukyanov, “Nastoiashchaya Evrazia,” Gazeta.ru, 24 October 2013, available at [http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/column/lukyanov/5721721.shtml].
See: O. Sushko, “A Fork in the Road? Ukraine between EU Association and the Eurasian Customs Union,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, No. 293, September 2013, available at [http://www.ponarseurasia.org/sites/default/files/policy-memos-pdf/Pepm_293_Sushko_Sept2013.pdf].
See: Š. Füle, “Ambitions of EU and East Partners for the Vilnius Summit,” 28 May 2013, available at [http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-13-477_en.htm]; “Ukraine Must Choose Russia’s Customs Union or EU Trade Agreement—President Grybauskaitė,” The Lithuania Tribune, 6 February 2013, available at [http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/28813/ukraine-must-choose-russias-customs-union-or-eu-trade-agreement-president-grybauskaite-201328813/].
See: “Assotsiatsia s ES i Tamozhenny soiuz nesovmestimy—sovetnik Putina,” NBNews.ua, 27 July 2013, available at [http://nbnews.com.ua/ru/news/95061/].
See: A. Nosovich, “U razbitogo koryta: itogi Vilniusskogo sammita Vostochnogo partnerstva,” Analytical portal about the Baltic Region, 2 December 2013, available at [http://www.rubaltic.ru/article/politika-i-obshchestvo/u-razbitogo-koryta-itogi-vilnyusskogo-sammita-vostochnogo-partnerstva-02122013/].
See: R. Stepanian, “Armenia deystvuet po printsipu ‘i-i’,” Radio Freedom-Armenia, 26 June 2013, available at [http://rus.azatutyun.am/content/article/25028736.html].
For example, Carl Bildt, one of the authors of the EP project, says that it was devised to remove the borders in Europe, one of the ideas popular in Europe during the Cold War (see: C. Bildt, “Vostochnoe partnerstvo—Evropa bez razmezhevatelnykh granits,” Den-Kiev, 3 October 2013, available at [http://day.kiev.ua/ru/article/den-planety/vostochnoe-partnerstvo-ev
ropa-bez-razmezhevatelnyh-granic]).
See: “Interpol podtverdil vydachu mezhdunarodnogo ordera na arest top-menedzherov ‘Belaruskaliya’,” Stolichnoe televidenie, 27 August 2013, available at [http://www.ctv.by/novosti-minska-i-minskoy-oblasti/interpol-podtverdil-vydachu-mezhdunarodnogo-ordera-na-arest-top].
See: Z. Agayev, “Azeri-Russian Arms Trade $4 Billion amid Tension with Armenia,” Bloomberg, 13 August 2013, available at [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-13/azeri-russian-arms-trade-4-billion-amid-tension-with-armenia.html].
The ruling coalition in Moldova is called Alliance for European Integration.
See: “Shchit vazhnee. Mezhdu Evropeyskim i Tamozhennym soiuzami Armenia vybrala ODKB,” Vzgliad, 3 September 2013, available at [http://www.vz.ru/politics/2013/9/3/648340.html].
See: “Azarov ne somnevaetsia v uspeshnosti Vilniusskogo sammita dlia Ukrainy,” Obozrevatel, 5 November 2013, available at [http://obozrevatel.com/politics/56392-azarov-ne-somnevaetsya-v-uspeshnosti-vilnyusskogo-sammita-dlya-ukrainy.htm].
See: “V Evroparlamente poniali, chto Yanukovich uzhe ne khochet assotsiatsii s ES,” Vlasti.net, 16 November 2013, available at [http://vlasti.net/news/179240].
See: “Dlia modernizatsii pod standarty ES nuzhno 165 mlrd Evro—Azarov,” LIGABiznesInform, 23 November 2013, available at [http://news.liga.net/news/politics/928309-dlya_modernizatsii_pod_standarty_es_nuzhno_165_mlrd_evro_azarov.htm].
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2014 Author
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation .
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.
