AZERBAIJAN: ETHNOPOLITICAL SECURITY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 21ST CENTURY
Abstract
I would like to say from the very beginning that any, even hypothetical, consideration of a conflict settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the focal point of the Caucasian instability salient, would be illogical without taking into account the possible geopolitical shifts in the region and in each of its countries. This suggests the following:
—An analysis of the key factors of what is called the forecast background: the key trends of the initial and forestalling period in the history of the phenomenon being studied;
—Long-term forecasts of the prospects for ethnopolitical security of the Azerbaijan Republic based on the principles of scientific prognostication.
—A normative scenario of the country’s development in the mid- and long-term perspectives based on the priorities of its ethnopolitical security strategy.
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