THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS: AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH. SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND THE PARADOXES OF STATISTICS
Abstract
The newly established North Caucasian Federal Okrug (NCFO) is a sure sign that Moscow has finally accepted, albeit indirectly, the fact that its undifferentiated methodological and conceptual approach to the region’s numerous ills was too limited to be successful. The discussion, however, went along the beaten track: “efficiency of federal investments and control over them” and “more money is needed.” In other words, everything boils down to social and economic measures, larger investments, and tighter control over the local bureaucracy and the way the budget money is spent. Nothing has been said so far about a changed format of counterterrorist operations (CTO) and the need to take into account the local social, political, and cultural specifics. This creates a déjà vu effect: an Un systemic approach, vulgar interpretations of Marxism, and concentration on the financial and economic factors to the detriment of all other regional specifics.
A correctly identified problem, meanwhile, is half the battle. The present article does not claim an exhaustive analysis: this is an attempt to identify the factors and causes of regional instability and some of the remedies. This calls for an integral idea of the regional context and the way certain factors contribute to the present socioeconomic, cultural, educational, and political instability.
The target of the present article is the NCFO republics and partly the Stavropol Territory.
The subject of my analysis is the region’s social structure, the social and political situation, and the way they contribute to the region’s chronic instability.
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See: Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli, Rosstat, Moscow, 2008, p. 62; S.A. Lipina, Chechen-skaia respublika. Ekonomicheskiy potentsial i strategicheskoe razvitie, LKI Publishers, Moscow, 2007, p. 53.
See: Regiony Rossii. Sotsialno-ekonomicheskie pokazateli, p. 74.
Calculated from the 1989 and 2002 figures and expert assessment of the outflow of Russian speakers from the
Chechen Republic in the 1990s.
See: Regiony Rossii. Sotsialno-ekonomicheskie pokazateli, p. 66.
For more detail, see: E.F. Kisriev, Islam i vlast v Daghestane, OGI Publishers, Moscow, 2004, pp. 45-65, 94-121;D.Sh. Khalidov, “Sotsialnaia nestabilnost na Severnom Kavkaze. Model vosproizvodstva i islamskiy factor,” Nauka. Kul-tura. Obshchestvo, ISPI RAN, Moscow, No. 2, 2005, available at [httr://www.ispr.ru]; A.A. Yarlykapov, Problemy va-khkhabizma na Severnom Kavkaze, Moscow, 2000.
This typology is based in the author’s personal observations and expert polls as well as archive materials.
Based on the author’s materials.
Calculated from Regiony Rossii. Sotsialno-ekonomicheskie pokazateli, p. 332.
Calculated from Regiony Rossii, Vol. 2, Moscow, 1999, pp. 258-259.
See: S.A. Ayvasian, Integralnye indikatory kachestva zhizni naselenia: ikh postroenie i ispolzovanie v sotsial-no-ekonomicheskom upravlenii i mezhregionalnykh sopostavleniakh, TsEMI RAN, Moscow, 2000, 117 pp. (website of TsEMI RAN).
See: S.A. Ayvasian, Razrabotka i analyz integralnykh indikatorov kachestva zhizni naselenia Samarskoy oblasti,TsEMI RAN, Moscow, 2005, 124 pp. (website of TsEMI RAN).
From the Appendix (see: S.A. Ayvasian, Razrabotka i analyz integralnykh indikatorov kachestva zhizni naselenia Samarskoy oblasti, pp. 63-64).
From the Appendix (see: S.A. Ayvasian, Razrabotka i analyz integralnykh indikatorov kachestva zhizni naselenia Samarskoy oblasti, pp. 79-80).
For more detail, see: S.A. Lipina, Respubliki Severnogo Kavkaza: Prioritety razvitia APK, LKI Press, Moscow,2008, pp. 238-239; M.M. Magomedov, F.I. Mirzabalaeva, “Vzaimosviaz komponentov Indeksa razvitia chelovecheskogo potentsiala,” in: Regionalnye aspekty sotsialnoy politiki, ISEI DNTs RAN, DGU, Makhachkala, Issue 3, 2001, pp. 71-74 (comparative analysis of the RF constituencies by the Human Potential Development Index).
See: A.B. Jalilov, “Sotsializatsia daghestanskoy molodezhi v svete problem obrazovania,” in: Regionalnye aspekty sotsialnoy politiki, Issue 3, pp. 89-97.
For more detail, see: N.M. Bragina, “Novaia rol sel’skogo khoziaystva (Vozmozhnosti ispolzovania iaponskoy modeli dlia reshenia prodovolstvennoy problemy v razvivaiushchikhsia stranakh),” in: Razvivaiushchiesia strany: poisk rezervov rosta, IMEMO RAN, Moscow, 1990, pp. 165-204; idem, “Melkoe promyshlennoe proizvodstvo v netraditsionnoy industrializatsii,” in: Razvivaiushchiesia strany: poisk rezervov rosta, pp. 242-243.
Based on expert assessments and figures quoted in Regiony Rossii. Sotsialno-ekonomicheskie pokazateli, pp. 165, 174.
See: Regiony Rossii. Sotsialno-ekonomicheskie pokazateli, p. 165.
See Tables 3 and 4 in Yu.V. Latov’s “Ekonomika tenevaya,” available at [http://www.krugosvet.ru/enc/
umanitarnye_nauki/ekonomika_i_pravo/EKONOMIKA_TENEVAYA.html]; idem, Ekonomika vne zakona. Ocherki po teorii i istorii tenevoy ekonomiki, MONF, Moscow, 2001.
See: Spetsialny doklad (4 kvartal 1997) ekspertov Rossiiskogo-evropeiskogo tsentra ekonomicheskoy politiki: Gergeia Nikolaenko (IMEMO RAN), Yaroslava Lissovolika i Rory MacFarquhar, “Tenevaia ekonomika v rossiyskikh regionakh,” in: Obzor ekonomiki Rossii. Osnovnye tendentsii razvitia. 1997, IV (Russian translation of “The Shadow Econ-omy in Russia’s Regions,” Russian Economic Trends, No. 4, 1997), Moscow, 1998, available at [http://www.budgetrf.ru/
ublications/ Magazines/recep /1997/4/rcpb199740000unec/rcpb199740000unec000.htm]; I.G. Kosikov, L.S. Kosikova,
‘Tenevaia’ ekonomika v zhizni Severnogo Kavkaza,” in: Severny Kavkaz: Sotsialno-ekonomicheskiy spravochnik, Mos-cow, 1999.
About 70 percent of the gross regional product in Daghestan is produced by the shadow economy (according to information of the Commission of the South Federal Okrug headed by A. Pochinok in 2005).
Calculated from: L.G. Stotsky, A. WoldeMariam, “Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa,” IME, Washington, 1997,p. 6, in: On the Least Developed Countries Report by UNCTAD, New York, 1997.
For more detail, see: H. de Soto, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Every-where Else, Basic Books, 2000. Chapter Four, “The Mystery of Political Awareness,” pp. 69-104; idem, The Other Path: he Invisible Revolution in the Third World, Basic Books, New York, 1989.
See: “Otchety Schetnoi palaty Rossii po rezultatam proverki ispolnenia budzheta RD v 1995-1997 godakh i v 2000-m—1-e polugodie 2001 goda,” in: Sborniki otchetov SP RF. Gosduma, 1998 i 2002; Postanovlenie Gosdumy FS RF “O situatsii v Respublike Daghestan” ot 15 sentiabria 1999 goda; “Schetnaia palata schitaet gosinvestitsii v Chechne neef-fektivnymi” (from: Otchet SP RF po resultatam proverki biudzhetnykh raskhodov v ChR—2009).
For more detail, see: V. Akaev, “Sufism i vahhabism na Severnom Kavkaze,” Issledovania po prikladnoy i neotloz-hnoy etnologii, No. 127, Moscow, 1999; D.Sh. Khalidov, “Sotsialnaia nestabilnost na Severnom Kavkaze…”; A.A. Yarlyka-pov, op. cit.
See: “Kommentarii k Dokladu “Situatsia na Severnom Kavkaze. Osen 2007 g.-vesna 2008 g.” Pravozashchtbogo tsentra “Memorial” [www.kavkaz.memo.ru], 19 April, 2008.
For more detail, see: Collection of articles Etnos i politika: khrestomatia, Compiled by A.A. Prasauskas, URAO Publishers, Moscow, 2000, pp. 116-128, 161-165, 190-200.
For more detail, see: V.V. Degoev, “Tri silueta Kavkazskoy voyny: A.P. Yermolov, M.S. Vorontsov, A.I. Bary-atinskiy,” in: Bolshaia igra na Kavkaze: istoria i sovremennost, Russkaia panorama, Moscow, 2001, pp. 156-204
See: M.O. Kosven, “Materialy po istorii etnografichekogo izuchenia Kavkaza v russkoi nauke,” in: Kavkazskiy etnograficheskiy sbornik, Issue 2, Moscow, 1962, p. 244; A.V. Komarov, “Adaty i sudoproizvodstvo po nim,” in: Sbornik svedeniy o kavkazskikh gortsakh, Issue I, Tiflis, 1868 (reissued in Moscow by MNTPO “Adir” in 1992).
For more detail, see: S. Rose-Ackerman, Corruption and Government: Causes, Consequences, and Reform, Cam-bridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999.
For more detail, see: T.M. Shamba, Natsionalnaia politika i natsionalno-gosudarstvennoe ustroystvo RF, Moscow,2000, pp. 131-134; Conception of State National Policy of the Russian Federation (endorsed by Decree of President of the RF B.N. Yeltsin of 15 June, 1996, No. 909).
For the methodological foundations of this approach, see: D.Sh. Khalidov, “Konstruktsia vlasti na Severnom Kavka-ze. Poisk optimalnoy formy ne zavershen,” Obozrevatel, RAU-Universitet Research Firm, No. 2, 2006, available at [http://www.rau.su].
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