CHINA, RUSSIA, ND THE U.S.: THEIR INTERESTS, POSTURES, AND INTERRELATIONS IN CENTRAL ASIA
Abstract
Central Asia is a separate geopolitical space, newly defined since the end of the Cold War. The region gains its importance from its abundant raw materials, particularly oil and natural gas, and its unique geographic location. Generally speaking, though, the region has been geo-graphically and psychologically isolated from most of the nations across the world, especially the United States and Europe. The events of 9/11 catapulted the region into the world’s spotlight. The region quickly became known to the world and has grown in strategic importance. Following the events of 9/11, Central Asia emerged from the shadows of the international arena to the forefront of global attention.
China, Russia, and the U.S. are the main actors in Central Asia. Europe is also interested in Central Asia and, after 9/11 in particular, is deeply concerned about and involved in the region. Europe, moreover, has demonstrated the potential to become a fourth power in Central Asia. While Turkey and Iran have particular interests and influence in the region, thanks to their historical vantages, they should not be seen as major powers in Central Asia.
hat is more, India is quietly penetrating the region, but its influence is considerably limited.
The special statuses of China, Russia, and the United States in Central Asia are mainly attributed to their involvement and influence in the region, on the one hand, and to the framework of the special relations the three powers have forged in international relations, on the other. The U.S. military presence in Central Asia has deeply affected the strategic structure in the region. A three-way confrontation looms on the horizon. Dealing with the bilateral and trilateral relations among them has become a strategic issue for China, Russia, and the United States.
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See: Ministry of Information, State Department of PRC, “‘East Turkestan’ Terrorist Forces Cannot Get Away with Im-punity,” People’s Daily, 22 January, 2002.
See: [http://www.xinhuanet.com], 15 December, 2003.
The figure varies according to different sources. According to the 1979 official census of the Soviet Union, the total number of ethnic Uyghurs in the U.S.S.R. was 211,000, most of them (148,000) lived in Kazakhstan, (see: ‘Etnosy v SSSR,” Novosti Publishing House, Moscow, 1989, p. 75). Now, according to a Chinese study, there are about 250,000 Uyghurs living in Ka-zakhstan, 40,500 in Uzbekistan, about 40,000 in Kyrgyzstan, about 6,000 in Turkmenistan, and about 3,000 in Tajikistan (see:
thnics, Religion and Conflicts in Central and South Asia, Xinjiang People’s Publishing House, 2003, p. 302). Kazakhstan’s experts mostly estimate the number of Uighurs in Kazakhstan as between 200,000 and 300,000.
See: Ma Dazheng, National Interests—Highest Priority, Xinjiang People’s Publishing House, 2002, p. 193.
See: Tian Chunrong, “Analyses on China’s Oil Import and Export in 2002 Year,” International Petroleum Economics,No. 3, 2003, p. 26.
Between 1998 and 2002, the annual oil production in Kazakhstan amounted to 25,9 million tonnes, 30.1 million tonnes,35.3 million tonnes, 39.6 million tonnes, 47.2 million tonnes, respectively (see: Country Profile Kazakhstan, The Economic In-telligence Unity, U.K., 2003, p. 46).
Collection of Papers on the Central Asian Situation and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Shanghai Institute for International Studies, Shanghai, 2003, p. 235.
E.B. Rumer, “SShA i Tsentral’naia Azia posle 11 sentiabria,” Strategic Forum, No. 195, December 2002, p. 3.
The latest demonstration of this position was made by Sergei Ivanov, Russian Defense Minister, at a NATO defense ministers’ meeting on 9 October, 2003.
Between1989 and 1999, ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan decreased from about six million to about four and a half mil-lion, but they still account for more than 30% of the total population of Kazakhstan. More than 150,000 ethnic Russians have left Kyrgyzstan, their percentage decreased from 15% to about 10%. In 1989, the number of ethnic Russians in Uzbekistan amounted to 8.3% of the country’s total population, now it is about 5%. In Tajikistan, the number of ethnic Russians fell from 8% in 1989 to about 2% (see: Country Profile Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, The Economic Intelligence Unity, U.K., 2003).
M. Khogarenok, “Nenuzhniy soiuz,” Nezavisimaia gazeta, 21 January, 2002.
See: R. Streshnev, “Shchit dlia Tsentral’noi Azii,” Krasnaia zvezda, 24 October, 2003.
Some people, like Eugine B. Rumer, assume that Russia is a major beneficiary of the events of 9/11 (see: E.B. Rumer,op. cit.). This is true in terms of eliminating the Taliban’s threat to Russia. It is irrelevant to Russia’s interest in its strategic pres-ence in Central Asia.
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