SAMTSKHE-JAVAKHETIA: WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER RUSSIA WITHDRAWS ITS MILITARY BASES FROM GEORGIA
Abstract
On 30 May 2005, high-ranking representatives from Moscow and Tbilisi signed a statement essentially signifying that an agreement had been reached on precise dates for Russia to begin withdrawing its military bases from Georgia. This document states that the Russian military bases in Batumi and Akhalkalaki will cease their designated activity and begin functioning under withdrawal conditions from the moment this statement is signed. Their withdrawal should be completed in 2008.1 This process, the sched-ule for which, according to both sides, is currently being fully observed in keeping with the agreement they have reached, could create certain threats to the physical safety of the Armenian residents of Samtskhe-Javakhetia (if alternative ways to ensure their safety are not found),2 as well as give rise to a new situation in the South Caucasian regional security system.
What is more, the withdrawal of the 62nd Russian military base from the administrative center of Javakhk throughout 2005 set off certain political processes in this region, the danger of escalation of which required the joint participation of the Georgian and Armenian authorities in an attempt to resolve the urgent problems there. This element of Armenian-Georgian interstate relations is also extremely significant when re-viewing the prospects for regional stability in the Southern Caucasus.
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References
See: Joint statement of the foreign ministers of the Russian Federation and Georgia [www.mid.ru], 30 May,2005.
For more detail, see: S. Minasian, “The Socioeco-nomic and Political Situation in Javakhetia,” Central Asia and the Caucasus, No. 3 (33), 2005.
See: Iu. Gavrilov. “Iaderny bunker dlia Saakashvili: gruzinskie voennye poluchili v svoe rasporiazhenie rossiiskii sekretny obiekt,” Rossiiskaia gazeta, 7 September, 2005.
See: S. Minasian. “Kavkazskii transit: Tbilisi khochet vziat pod svoi kontrol voennye kommunikatsii rossiiskikh voisk,” Voenno-promyshlenny kurier, No. 37 (104), 5-11 October, 2005.
Ibidem.
“Zakrytie rossiiskoi bazy v Gruzii meniaet strategicheskii balans,” Kavkazskii informatsionny ezhenedelnik, IWPR,No. 293-296, June-July 2005.
A. Rusetsky, “Protsess vyvoda rossiiskikh baz—ugroza natsionalnoi bezopasnotsi Gruzii?” [www.pankisi.info],7 September, 2005.
See: G. Hokobyan, Large Demonstration in Javakhetia Marks Increased Tensions // Central Asia — Caucasus Analyst, Vol. 6, No. 7, 6 April, 2005.
See: S. Minasian, “The Sociopolitical and Political Situation in Javakhk Today,” 21-i vek (information and analyt-ical journal of the Noravank Foundation), No. 1, 2005, pp. 66-71(in Armenian); Sturm shkoly i izbienie uchenikov armi-anskoi shkoly v Gruzii: podrobnosti [www.regnum.ru], 8 July, 2005.
See: “Gruzinski spetsnaz ‘dal poshchechinu vsem armianam i natsmenshinstvam Gruzii’” [www.regnum.ru],30 July, 2005.
See: “Gruzinski spetsnaz izbil deputata armianskoi national’nosti [www.regnum.ru], 6 May, 2005.
See: “V Samtskhe-Javakheti (Gruzia) pereosviashchena armianskaia tserkov Sv. Bogoroditsy” [www.regnum.ru],3 August, 2005.
See: “Armiane Samtskhe-Javakheti zaiavili o shirokoi avtonomni (Gruzia)” [www.regnum.ru], 26 September, 2005;Iu. Simonian, “Armiane Javakhetii trebuiut avtonomni,” Nezavisimaia gazeta, 26 September, 2005.
See: S. Minasian, “The Socioeconomic and Political Situation in Javakhetia,” pp. 144-149.
See: N. Khutsidze, “Reforma samoupravleniia na politicheskoi povestke [www.civil.ge], 4 November, 2005.
See: “V Akhalkalaki proizoshel intsident mezhdu politsiei i mestnym naseleniem [www.newsgeorgia.ru], 6 Octo-ber, 2005.
D. Berdzenishvili, “Glavnaia vnutrenniaia problema Gruzii,” in: Diaspora, neft i rozy: chem zhivut strany Yuzh-nogo Kavkaza, Erevan, 2005, p. 157.
“Ofitsial’ny predstavitel Erevana prizyvaet Tbilisi k ostorozhnosti v Samtskhe-Javakheti” [www.civil.ge], 10 Oc-tober, 2005.
See: “Rossiiskie spetssluzhby ne prichastny k intsidentam v Samtskhe-Javakheti” [www.regnum.ru], 8 October,2005.
See: “Mikhail Saakashvili voznamerilsia ‘polnostiu pokonchit s armianskim kul’turnym sloem’” [www.regnum.ru],22 April, 2005.
“Premier-ministr Gruzii obeshchaet sdelat region Javakhetii neuznavaemym” [www.regnum.ru], 24 July, 2005.
See: “Premier-ministry Gruzii i Armenii vstretilis na gruzino-armianskoi granitse” [www.regnum.ru], 24 July, 2005.
“Nogaideli: ‘v Gruzii budet tri avtonomii—Ajarskaia, Abkhazskaia i Tshinval’skaia’” [www.regnum.ru], 29 Sep-tember, 2005.
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