INFLUENCE OF THE WORLD CENTERS OF POWER IN CENTRAL ASIA AND TAJIKISTAN: DYNAMICS AND OUTLOOK
Abstract
The current geopolitical situation in the Central Asian republics is much more diverse and complicated than it was ten years ago. Today, several countries—geopolitical players—ranging from Russia and the United States to Turkey and Iran are simultaneously exerting their influence on the political and socio-economic development of the region’s states. But this influence is far from even, it is mainly divided between the Russian Federation and the U.S. (the West), while China is expected to play a much greater role in the future. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the region is extremely unstable. Over the past few years, the role of one or another of the centers of power here now increases, now dwindles away to almost nothing. In other words, Central Asia is still an arena of geopolitical struggle, the dynamics and outcome of which in the future are still rather difficult to predict.
In this context, two groups of questions arise. The first—to what extent is the geopolitical situation in the region still unstable and how is the influence of the main centers of power distributed within it, that is, are the changes that have occurred in the past two years in the geopolitical situation (particularly with respect to Russia’s stronger position in Central Asia) permanent, or is this a temporary phenomenon likely to change again in the future? The second—to what extent and how does the orientation of the region’s countries toward a particular center of power influence the nature of their development? For example,what will a particular country or region gain from being oriented toward Russia or toward the U.S.?And can the Central Asian republics carry out the multi-vector policy they are declaring today, whereby avoiding a biased orientation toward only one nation or center of power?
In this article, we will try to answer, if not all the questions asked, at least the most important of them by analyzing the dynamics and outlook of the influence of the main geopolitical players in the region—Russia and the U.S.
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References
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Quoted from: N. Lemann, op. cit.
See: A. Alexandrov, “Amerikantsy obzhivaiut Tsentral’nuiu Aziiu,” in: Bulletin Russia and the Muslim World,No. 6 (120), RAS, Moscow, 2002, pp. 102-112.
See: Ibidem.
See: M. Meyer, “Domino Theory,” Newsweek, 11 January, 2005, Foreign mass media [http://www.CentrAsia.org/
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V. Mukhin, “Podvodnye kamni na puti rossiisko-tadzhikskogo sblizheniia,” Ferhana.ru, 22 October, 2004.
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V. Mukhin, op. cit.
D. Verkhoturov, “Tajikistan vprave trebovat’ ot Rossii bol’shei otvetstvennosti,” Avesta, 25 September, 2005.
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