ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM OF TAJIKISTAN’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Abstract
World historical experience shows that successful development of any state largely depends on correctly selected strategic goals and priorities. In fact, there are plenty of examples showing that the choice of true directions has led to the successful and sustainable development of different countries, both large and small. However, there are reverse examples as well. A particularly representative example here is the experience of the U.S.S.R.—a country with huge material and human resources which, due to its poorly chosen development strategy, has ended up with economic degradation and disintegration.
Tajikistan, one of the union republics of that state, was the least advanced territory even in those days, and during the civil war in Tajikistan, its national economy slumped to a crisis level by 1995. It was not until the beginning of the 21st century that slight (and very slow) economic recovery was outlined. Under these conditions, efficient economic development (even if it was only catching up) is seen not just as an urgent, but as a vitally crucial task for Tajikistan. And elaboration and implementation of an appropriate development program is becoming of top priority.
Unfortunately, both the strategy and the programs adopted in this sphere are in many respects immature and underdeveloped, and they actually fail to meet the challenges the republic is currently facing, which first of all concerns its choice of basic priorities and ranking. Today, agriculture and the hydropower industry have been formally approved as the main areas in Tajikistan’s economic development strategy. However, their priority is actually only declared, since no sufficient grounds for them currently exist.
The thing is that in the countries which have chosen agriculture as a primary vector of their economic development strategy, even under the most favorable natural and climatic conditions, efficient development is hardly possible, not to mention a technological breakthrough. At best, such countries are attributed to the category of the so-called “banana republics.” However, as we have already noted, there are quite a number of examples showing that the states which tend to enhance their power industries by primarily relying on available raw product resources can be developed rather successfully.
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This is inevitable in the foreseeable future since the state is not even considering the question of birth reduction,and in a traditional Muslim society family planning is not provided for.
According to national statistics, after 1997 the size of the republic’s able-bodied population increased to 2,000 thou-sand people due to the inclusion of women engaged in housekeeping in this category and due to expansion of borders of the economically active population age group. At the same time, however, from 1996 the population of Tajikistan increased insignificantly: in 2006 it totaled 6,400,000.
See G. Petrov, “Tajikistan’s Energy Projects: Past, Present, and Future,” Central Asia and the Caucasus, No. 5 (29),2004.
See G. Petrov, “Tajikistan’s Hydropower Resources,” Central Asia and the Caucasus, No. 3 (21), 2003.
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