TURKEY’S FOREIGN POLICY TAKES A NEW TURN AFTER THE 2014 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Keywords:
Turkey, the U.S., Russia, the EU, the SCO, Turkish tandem, Turkey’s European perspective, the EU’s Eastern alternative.Abstract
Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan sustained a convincing victory at the presidential election held in Turkey in August 2014, receiving a nationwide mandate of trust. In tandem with the new prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, he will try to boost the country’s domestic political capital and reach new frontiers of cooperation with the main external partners. In so doing, the Turkish government will retain its balanced course in two geopolitical directions—European and Eastern. Nevertheless, the country’s authorities will have to constantly adjust their plans regarding the adjacent regions to meet the interests of the powers having an interest there. These efforts aim to define both the main driving forces behind Turkey’s foreign policy choice and the interests of the Western and Eastern political centers.
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References
See: J. Zanotti, “Turkey: Background and US Relations,” Congressional Research Service, 1 August, 2014, available at [http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R41368.pdf].
See: “Alexander Rar: Turtsiia ne budet chlenom Evrosoiuza, etot vopros zakryt,” IA REGNUM, available at [http://
ww.regnum.ru/news/polit/1665433.html], 30 May, 2013.
See: Response of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry A.K. Lukashevich to the media’s question on Turkey observing the Montreux Convention, available in Russian at [http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/2AA87F2720DC85A D44257CBA004F3833], 14 April, 2014.
See: Z. Keck, “Turkey Renews Plea to Join Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” The Diplomat, 1 December, 2013,available at [http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/turkey-renews-plea-to-join-shanghai-cooperation-organization/].
At present, Russia is not against the Chinese idea, but is putting forward a counter proposal—to create a SCO Bank on the basis of the Eurasian Development Bank in Kazakhstan’s Almaty.
See: St. Blank, “Turkey and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Motives and Consequences,” CACI Analyst,23 April, 2014, available at [http://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/12958-turkey-and-the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-motives-and-consequences.html].
See: “Oil from Kashagan Will Be Pumped via BTC—Azerbaijan Minister of Energy,” available in Russian at [http://
ww.inform.kz/rus/article/2658474], 15 May, 2014.
Turkey is buying around 90% of the oil and 98% of the gas being consumed in the domestic market. The country’s energy consumption is growing by 4-5% every year. According to expert assessments, in the next 15 years, the Turkish economy will need more than $100 billion in investments in the energy sector, that is, between $6 and 8 billion annually (see:
. Babali, “The Role of Energy in Turkey’s Relations with Russia and Iran,” available at [http://csis.org/files/attach-ments/120529_Babali_Turkey_Energy.pdf], 29 March, 2012).
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