CENTRAL ASIA: SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF POST-2014 AFGHANISTAN

Authors

  • Murat LAUMULIN D.Sc. (Political Science), Chief Research Fellow, Kazakhstan Institute of Strategic Studies under the President of the RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) Author

Abstract

Its geographic location, domestic political complications, ethno-confessional diversity, and involvement in the global shadow economy keep Afghanistan in the center of the intertwining interests of state and extra-state forces. This threatens the country’s immediate neighbors and even whole regions and explains the never weakening interest of Pakistan, India, Iran, the Central Asian Soviet successor-states, China, and Russia in what is going on in this country.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

The government in Kabul will remain in control of the country’s foreign policy; it will have the right to declare war and apply anti-drug legislation; it will control customs services and mining, but will have limited rights in supervising trade between provinces.

According to many of the Western experts in Afghanistan, the term “moderate Talibans” used by Kabul is nothing but a myth. The attempts to integrate them into administrative structures are fraught with unpredictable repercussions.

See: O.A. Dobrinskaia, “Tokyo: aktsent na nevoennye aspekty uregulirovaniia v Afghanistane,” Azia i Afrika segodnia,No. 11, 2012, pp. 12-17.

For more details, see: M.T. Laumulin, “Stsenarii razvitiia Afghanistana i pozitsii zainteresovannykh storon,” in:

Afghanistan: nastoiashchee i budushchee. Vozdeystvie na stabilnost i bezopasnost Tsentralnoy Azii. Materialy mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii, FFE, Almaty, 2011, pp. 109-121.

See: Afghanistan after 2014: Five Scenarios, FOI, Stockholm, 2012, 100 pp.

See: I. Labinskaia, “Tsentralnaia Azia v kontekste afghanskoy situatsii,” Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnoshenia (IMEMO RAN), No. 5, 2011, pp. 3-16.

See: Vyzovy bezopasnosti v Tsentralnoy Azii, IMEMO RAN, Moscow, 2013, 150 pp.

R. Blackwill, “Plan ‘B’ in Afghanistan. Why a De Facto Partition is the Least Bad Option,” available at [www.

foreignaffairs.com/print/66982 2/6].

[http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137696/stephen-hadley-and-john-d-podesta/the-right-way-out-of-afghanistan].

See: S.F. Starr, A.C. Kuchins, The Key to Success in Afghanistan. A Modern Silk Road Strategy, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program—A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center, Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, Washington, D.C., 2010, 48 pp.; S.F. Starr, Finish the Job: Jump-Start Afghanistan’s Economy, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program—A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center, Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, Washington, D.C., 2012, 55 pp.

See: Vyzovy bezopasnosti v Tsentralnoy Azii, pp. 84-89.

I. Safranchuk, “Afghanistan in Search of Balance,” available at [http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/person/p_1260].

See: S. Harnisch, Back to the Future: Germany’s Afghanistan Policy after 2014, Institute of Political Science,Heidelberg, 2013, 12 pp.

See: Yu. Morozov, “Afghanistan posle 2014 goda: stabilnost dlia gosudarstv ShOS ili novy vitok napriazhennosti v Tsentralno-Aziatskom regione?” Problemy Dalnego Vostoka, No. 2, 2013, pp. 94-114 (Yu. Morozov, “Afghanistan after 2014:

tability for SCO States or New Tensions in Central Asia?” Far Eastern Affairs).

See: V. Belokrinitskiy, S. Kamenev, “Afghanistan i Pakistan: sostoianie i perspektivy?” Vostok-Oriens, No. 4, 2012,pp. 165-170.

See: A. Durrani, “Post-NATO Afghanistan: Implications for Regional Security,” Russia in Global Affairs, No. 4,2012.

See: Z. Kabulov, “SShA uydut iz Afghanistana, chtoby usilit prisutstvie v ATR,” Indeks bezopanosti (PIR-Tsentr),No. 3-4, 2012, pp. 11-18.

See: M. Konarovskiy, “Afghanistan at the Threshold of Changes,” International Affairs, No. 1, 2012.

V. Sergeev, “The USA in Afghanistan,” International Affairs, No. 2, 2012.

See: D. Malysheva, “Afganskiy endspiel i regionalnaia bezopasnost,” Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnoshenia, No. 11, 2012, pp. 16-23.

See: N. Mendkovich, “Uroki na budushchee. Voennye itogi afganskoy kampanii NATO”, Rossia v globalnoy politike,No. 2, 2013.

See: Vyzovy bezopasnosti v Tsentralnoy Azii, pp. 81-82.

Downloads

Published

2013-06-30

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 3 (2013): 3 (14) 2013

Section

AFGHANISTAN 2014

License

Copyright (c) 2013 Author

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

You are free to:

  1. Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
  2. Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
  3. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

Under the following terms:

  1. Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
  2. No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.

Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation .
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.

How to Cite

LAUMULIN, M. (2013). CENTRAL ASIA: SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF POST-2014 AFGHANISTAN. CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS, 14(3), 07-20. https://ca-c.org/CAC/index.php/cac/article/view/1579

Plaudit

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 3 > >>